6 ms·

How easy this value can be verified? In other words, do we have all inputs public and the algorithm (with all its "hedonistic adjustments") is fully accessible?

• upupandup 4y ago
  The number the authorities give out is far removed from reality. Just head over to the grocery store. Try buying electronics. Inflation is still raging and I'm afraid they are just going to tell people suck it up. There is absolutely NO WAY inflation suddenly drops like this
  • jonnycomputer 4y ago
    Don't be ridiculous. The Fed has aggressively raised interest rates and signals that it will continue to do so, and there is widespread worry about a recession. We've had two quarters of negative GDP growth! (though I tend to think the numbers will revised upward eventually).
  • s1artibartfast 4y ago
    Inflation is still positive so yeah, you'd expect prices to keep going up. Negative inflation would mean prices are going down
• propogandist 4y ago
  the govt changed the way CPI metric was calculated in January 2022 to mask some of the inflation https://twitter.com/truflation/status/1557349186466627586 https://twitter.com/truflation/status/1557349186466627586 https://youtube.com/watch?v=cb7oI8Hs16g https://youtube.com/watch?v=cb7oI8Hs16g http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
  • jonnycomputer 4y ago
    propagandist gonna propagandize, i guess.
    • propogandist 4y ago
      here’s a biased media outlet that may meet your standards https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/24/technology/inflation-measure-cpi-accuracy.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/24/technology/inflation-meas...
      • anotherman554 4y ago
        From the New York Times article you linked to: "But experts on inflation say the changes to calculations over the years have made the reported rate a more accurate snapshot of how much prices are rising for shoppers. The rate under a different methodology might be higher, they say, but the effect would be small, and the alternative number would do a poorer job of reflecting the costs consumers were grappling with."
        • propogandist 4y ago
          The experts on inflation told us it wasn’t real, unrelated to excessive govt spending, and that it was transitory, in the last year.
          • jonnycomputer 4y ago
            The experts thought it would be transitory, but they were wrong, and most admitted that they were wrong. It is ok to be wrong. Especially when predicting the future. Cut the malarkey. As for it not being real, who said that? No one I know. Unrelated to government spending? Well, inflation is multi-causal. Europe didn't go on a spending splurge, and yet they have inflation too. Most economists believe that government spending is at least partially responsible for the inflation. However, when the government was deciding to respond to the pandemic recession, economists advised them that the downside risks of over-compensating were smaller than not doing enough. And you know what? they were right. 8% inflation is certainly high, but this is no depression.
• jonnycomputer 4y ago
  The data, and the algorithm, are public. You just have to look. You say energy prices have skyrocketed? well yeah, and that is reflected. year over year, increased over 30%, according to this: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ The truth there are different inflation measures that tell us different things about the economy. Also, when the structure of the economy changes, the indexes used might mismatch what people are actually paying. We live in wild times, and it very well might be that there is more uncertainty in the numbers, or more mismatch from lived experience, than there used to be. https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/common-misconceptions-about-cpi.htm https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/common-misconceptions-abo...
  • fuoqi 4y ago
    >You just have to look. Have you done it? Can you confidently say that you can completely reproduce it? What I would like to see ideally is something like a spreadsheet with all formulas, coefficients, and inputs being inside it for every published CPI value. And every calculation input in the spreadsheets has to include its source. As the famous saying goes, there are 3 kinds of kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics. There is a LOT of wiggle room to play with inputs, coefficients, wights, and various adjustments.
    • shusaku 4y ago
      It seems like your only excuse for skepticism is that you’re too lazy to put in the work