4 ms·
It's funny because I remember 538 and company being attacked for saying it's likely Clinton but could go either way; and how that "wasn't a real prediction". Y
by spywaregorilla 4y ago
It's funny because I remember 538 and company being attacked for saying it's likely Clinton but could go either way; and how that "wasn't a real prediction".
You were not well informed. That's the short of it. I have no doubt that many people took aggressive takes that were not valid. But reputable analysts were very clear on the issue.
Appealing to the majority on nuanced issues is never a good idea.
- ZeroGravitas 4y agoWorth noting that most of 538's 'secret sauce' was in combining state by state poll results with national polls to take account of the weird Electoral College system. I'm guessing most of the predictions that people remember as saying Clinton can't lose were basically just predicting the popular vote, which she didn't lose, but even then wasn't really that far outside the margin of error. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for...