4 ms·

Looks like he started predicting a dip in 2019. In 2018, he was saying he doesn't expect a large downturn: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/26/robert-shiller-i-don

Looks like he started predicting a dip in 2019. In 2018, he was saying he doesn't expect a large downturn: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/26/robert-shiller-i-dont-expect-a-sharp-turn-in-the-housing-market.html https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/26/robert-shiller-i-dont-expect... Covid and the temporary interest rate drop can pretty strongly explain why he was off by 2-3 years.

atwood22 4y ago
In 2019, the Fed decided to raise the benchmark rate, but then reversed course after a few months. I wonder if his prediction in 2019 was before or after the Fed started lowering rates again. Rates were also rising in 2004 when he made his prediction back then, too. There is probably more to his analysis, but he seems to predict housing prices will fall as interest rates go up. Most people would predict that.