3 ms·
The commissar for traffic presents the latest five-year plan (2014) [pdf]
- konschubert 4y agohttps://xkcd.com/605/ https://xkcd.com/605/
- ZeroGravitas 4y agoThis seems to possibly be a temporary thing: https://www.statista.com/statistics/185579/us-vehicle-miles-in-transit-since-1960/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/185579/us-vehicle-miles-... More recent data shows a dip then a rise to record levels, not sure how close to the predictions it is, would be interesting to plot it. It's still off, but not as much, and it was a good fit for historical data. Seems to be reaching the top of the S curve now, they've updated the methodology since: https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/tables/vmt/vmt_model_dev.cfm https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/tables/vmt/vmt_mo...
- marginalia_nu 4y agoIt's looking a lot like the Swedish central bank's interest rate forecasts (an iconic illustration dubbed "the hedgehog"): https://cornucopia.se/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/riksigelkotten_2001607.png https://cornucopia.se/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/riksigelkot...
- todd8 4y agoThis is typical, and it's a problem that large organizations must work against. I can remember large, complex software development projects having similar fanciful projections (mostly about schedules). Estimates would roll-up from low level managers and would often be completely wrong, accumulating errors as the aggregate estimates moved up the organizational hierarchy. The only thing saving the individuals responsible for such egregious estimates was "schedule chicken" where each person hoped that someone else would be the first to ask for more time than was scheduled. The first person to do so would be blamed, but everyone else benefited from the extra breathing room in the slipped schedule.