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> Could the fetus have survived? Much more likely than not at 28 weeks. ~50% viability is like a month earlier than that. > Would the fetus have had a good qu

> Could the fetus have survived? Much more likely than not at 28 weeks. ~50% viability is like a month earlier than that. > Would the fetus have had a good quality of life? Roughly even or better chances of lasting complications. Of course, some percentage of babies delivered at every stage of pregnancy have a chance of lasting complications. You could throw a "who could say" after anything you want.

washbrain 4y ago
And you have sufficient information about the parents in this case to say there were no complications factors or social challenges that may have caused those numbers to deviate from "normal"? My point is you cannot apply the average case to each individual case. You don't have enough data to confidently say "more likely than not" for this case.
- rcoveson 4y ago
  "More likely than not" is already an uncertainty. There's no need to qualify it with further uncertainty. I'm working with the same information you are. All we know is that it was 28 weeks. That gives it a > 50% survival chance if delivered in a hospital in the US. You might come to a different number if you used different sources, or if you had more information. But "we can't know for certain" is just a truism; nobody's saying we know anything for certain. We're just estimating the probability based on what we do know.
- dgfitz 4y ago
  I guess the obvious response to this is something along the lines of: newborn babies get adopted quicker than houses were bought during covid. Of course that is hyperbole as there is an adoption process, but if the baby was not wanted she could have had all of her medical bills covered and given the child to a family that desperately wanted to raise said child. I’ll just pick a side, 28 weeks is too late. 12, ok. Maybe I could be talked into 15 even. 28 is just too late. Hell my wife and I would have raised the kid if that was the alternative to an abortion so late.

washbrain 4y ago

And you have sufficient information about the parents in this case to say there were no complications factors or social challenges that may have caused those numbers to deviate from "normal"? My point is you cannot apply the average case to each individual case. You don't have enough data to confidently say "more likely than not" for this case.

rcoveson 4y ago
"More likely than not" is already an uncertainty. There's no need to qualify it with further uncertainty. I'm working with the same information you are. All we know is that it was 28 weeks. That gives it a > 50% survival chance if delivered in a hospital in the US. You might come to a different number if you used different sources, or if you had more information. But "we can't know for certain" is just a truism; nobody's saying we know anything for certain. We're just estimating the probability based on what we do know.
dgfitz 4y ago
I guess the obvious response to this is something along the lines of: newborn babies get adopted quicker than houses were bought during covid. Of course that is hyperbole as there is an adoption process, but if the baby was not wanted she could have had all of her medical bills covered and given the child to a family that desperately wanted to raise said child. I’ll just pick a side, 28 weeks is too late. 12, ok. Maybe I could be talked into 15 even. 28 is just too late. Hell my wife and I would have raised the kid if that was the alternative to an abortion so late.