Oil/gasoline is just commodities inflation, which is cyclical and probably bullwhip effects. Core CPI is also running over 5% and wages are increasing at over

Oil/gasoline is just commodities inflation, which is cyclical and probably bullwhip effects. Core CPI is also running over 5% and wages are increasing at over 5%. The only way to really change the labor market is by destroying jobs and making people who lose their jobs desperate enough to take whatever they can find. That'll only happen through increasing unemployment via a recession. The Fed is going to have its eyes focused on Core CPI which won't change until employment numbers change. We haven't seen wage inflation like this before, but this time there actually are some important differences. Boomers are retiring, immigration was reduced by Trump and those low levels maintained by Biden, COVID killed and disabled quite a lot of people, and a good chunk of people are just fed up with the way employees get treated and unionization is rising. That isn't gong to go away because oil prices drop. And oil is dropping due to fears of a recession and demand destruction, so the markets are displaying "backwardation" where the further you go out the more the futures prices drop. The 5-year and 10-year inflation expecations are likely pricing in a recession which will cause the demand destruction to cap inflation (and note that the effect of these policies to cap inflation also lower long term interest rates). It is interesting how many Millennials are about to get an economics lesson. Surprisingly there's more to economics than just the "money printer go brrrr...." meme.