Core PCE has been accelerating MoM the last few months. Wage inflation has been accelerating There is no slowing of inflation in measured data, aside from lead

Core PCE has been accelerating MoM the last few months. Wage inflation has been accelerating There is no slowing of inflation in measured data, aside from leading indicators, like commodities, but speculation and US reserve releases have been a big driver in the downward move in oil prices. Structural oil price equilibrium is likely to be over $100/barrel once US reserve releases stop on November 1st All market moves have just been anticipation at this point. Wage trends imply that core inflation is likely to average 4%+ as a steady state, even if headline CPI has peaked. If this bears out, the 10y treasury could easily run to 4-5% There is almost certainly a coming whiplash effect from consumers reaching max tapping out of credit, that's the only thing that could realistically solve inflation at this point, aside from stronger Fed action. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCLACBW027SBOG https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCLACBW027SBOG Keep in mind markets greatly overestimated forward inflation through the 80s-90s, it's equally likely they may perpetually underestimate inflation in the 2020's. Market forward measures are not a strong source of accuracy if you reference history. Just look at what the market expectations of inflation were for most of 2021 (far below realized inflation in 2022)