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I think you are being very semiconductor focused if you describe it as "starting to soften". Lumber, copper, and meats are all at pre-pandemic prices and key dr

I think you are being very semiconductor focused if you describe it as "starting to soften". Lumber, copper, and meats are all at pre-pandemic prices and key drivers of inflation. Even some electronics categories (cameras) are dropping significantly which is why I think you said "starting". In my opinion, gas/oil/petroleum is the last thing keeping inflation up. If gas drops by 20-30%, things like plastics, cement, and anything that requires transport (food) will return to pre-pandemic levels as well. Some people will blame the war but the clear driver of all of this is Biden signalling to domestic producers that they will face hostility. The stopping of new oil production didn't move the needle itself but rather that CAPEX definitely was reduced which meant recovering production levels has taken longer than it should have.

selimthegrim 4y ago
How is Manchin’s carve out for new leasing hostility? Anything short of bending over for them is hostility?
- hervature 4y ago
  Do you think oil magically starts flowing once a human signs a piece of paper? It takes time, the impacts of the last decision are being felt now 2 years after the fact and the impacts of this decision will take 2 years. We are reaping what was sown 2 years ago and it was entirely predictable and the whole point of the policy of banning new leases was to make oil more expensive to expedite green energy adoption as it becomes more economically viable. It is pretty clear Biden is still signalling that these concessions are temporary and that, if inflation is curbed, will go back to being hard on oil. Like I said, this signaling is more powerful than the actual policy because it prevents investment as the ROI is too risky.
  - pwinnski 4y ago
    Do you think there has been fewer permits issued under Biden? Because there haven't[0]. There were many thousands of existing leases not being developed[1], and now a record number of permits--both in percentage terms and as raw numbers--have been issued under Biden. Turn off the political info and look at the reality: this is not, and has not been, a domestic leasing issue. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has really been as catastrophic for oil prices as people have been saying, which is why this is a worldwide problem, not just a US problem. 0. https://news.yahoo.com/us-oil-and-gas-permitting-has-increased-under-biden-data-show-223504727.html https://news.yahoo.com/us-oil-and-gas-permitting-has-increas... 1. https://news.yahoo.com/fact-checking-biden-claim-9-170008791.html https://news.yahoo.com/fact-checking-biden-claim-9-170008791...
    - hervature 4y ago
      Maybe third time is the charm. I'll quote myself. > Like I said, this signaling is more powerful than the actual policy because it prevents investment as the ROI is too risky.
lowercased 4y ago
> The stopping of new oil production didn't move the needle itself What 'new oil production' was stopped?
- hervature 4y ago
  Biden banned new leases on Federal lands on the first day in office. Like I said, the policy did not prevent more oil production but investment in new production on existing leases were certainly tempered because companies did not want to spends $BIG_NUMBER to simply be told to shut off the pumps if the Democrats win the midterm elections.

selimthegrim 4y ago

How is Manchin’s carve out for new leasing hostility? Anything short of bending over for them is hostility?

hervature 4y ago
Do you think oil magically starts flowing once a human signs a piece of paper? It takes time, the impacts of the last decision are being felt now 2 years after the fact and the impacts of this decision will take 2 years. We are reaping what was sown 2 years ago and it was entirely predictable and the whole point of the policy of banning new leases was to make oil more expensive to expedite green energy adoption as it becomes more economically viable. It is pretty clear Biden is still signalling that these concessions are temporary and that, if inflation is curbed, will go back to being hard on oil. Like I said, this signaling is more powerful than the actual policy because it prevents investment as the ROI is too risky.
- pwinnski 4y ago
  Do you think there has been fewer permits issued under Biden? Because there haven't[0]. There were many thousands of existing leases not being developed[1], and now a record number of permits--both in percentage terms and as raw numbers--have been issued under Biden. Turn off the political info and look at the reality: this is not, and has not been, a domestic leasing issue. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has really been as catastrophic for oil prices as people have been saying, which is why this is a worldwide problem, not just a US problem. 0. https://news.yahoo.com/us-oil-and-gas-permitting-has-increased-under-biden-data-show-223504727.html https://news.yahoo.com/us-oil-and-gas-permitting-has-increas... 1. https://news.yahoo.com/fact-checking-biden-claim-9-170008791.html https://news.yahoo.com/fact-checking-biden-claim-9-170008791...
  - hervature 4y ago
    Maybe third time is the charm. I'll quote myself. > Like I said, this signaling is more powerful than the actual policy because it prevents investment as the ROI is too risky.

lowercased 4y ago

> The stopping of new oil production didn't move the needle itself What 'new oil production' was stopped?

hervature 4y ago
Biden banned new leases on Federal lands on the first day in office. Like I said, the policy did not prevent more oil production but investment in new production on existing leases were certainly tempered because companies did not want to spends $BIG_NUMBER to simply be told to shut off the pumps if the Democrats win the midterm elections.