This is a great article - it draws lines for decision making based on your emotional state. The curve should be modeled as a successive approximation function

This is a great article - it draws lines for decision making based on your emotional state. The curve should be modeled as a successive approximation function where the optimism level is really a relative representation of being 'informed'. The thing is, you can't make this curve correctly until after you've been down the path and figured it out.. because otherwise you don't know what you don't know. That's why this article makes a great point that you just have to ride the rollercoaster of every cycle.