3 ms·
It's interesting to me the level of unadulterated hate Krugman gets. I'm not any kind of avid reader of public intellectual economics so have no long-term basis
by nonameiguess 4y ago
It's interesting to me the level of unadulterated hate Krugman gets. I'm not any kind of avid reader of public intellectual economics so have no long-term basis from my past experiences reading him to have an opinion one way or another, but just looking at this single set of predictions, he still seems to have been right as often as wrong:
- Internet won't have a long run impact on economy - NOPE
- IT job growth will slow drastically - NOPE
- US triumphalism will vanish within a few years of 1998 - YEP
- Inflation will go up in 1999 - YEP, but didn't quite hit 3%
- Productivity growth will slow in 1998 - YEP (not a long-run trend, but he was right about 1998)
- Some time in the next 20 years, we'll see another 70s-style supply crunch - NOPE, but pretty close, since it is happening right now; he just missed by a few years
It's especially interesting in that the entire column seems to be a general poo-pooing of economic optimism and expression of his skepticism that anything happening in the 90s will fundamentally change the way the business cycle works. That seems generally in line with the predominant Hacker News zeitgeist - be skeptical of everything, don't buy hype cycles, the future will probably mostly end up being similar to the past. Every now and again, you spectacularly miss some legitimate sea change, but most hype cycles do end up receding.