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It's pretty clear that economists are really only good at predicting the past. Although with this particular prediction, Krugman may not have been that wrong, s
by yborg 4y ago
It's pretty clear that economists are really only good at predicting the past. Although with this particular prediction, Krugman may not have been that wrong, since the fax machine had a huge economic impact in Asia in that timeframe.
- acdha 4y agoI would like a citation that one prediction from one person is representative of the entire field. Have you seen a meta-analysis of predictions?
- jhbadger 4y agoOr in the United States as well.. Nearly all offices in the US in the 1990s (and even into the 2000s) had a fax machine to send documents back and forth, especially ones that needed to be signed. Until fairly recently you could still run into people who didn't trust emails with scanned PDFs (or those newfangled "digital signatures" on PDFs) and would want faxes even after the time when fax machines became rare.