5 ms·

Russia will collapse.

mcv 4y ago
I fear this is a definite possibility, and it's terrifying. Because the main thing that Russia has, their only real claim to being a major power, and the only reason why they've been able to get away with their invasion, is their nukes. And if the country really collapses, who knows what will happen to those nukes? I don't mean to upset anyone, and I think the chance of collapse is small, but it's not zero.
- leesec 4y ago
  They didn't use nukes during the collapse of Soviet Union.
  - trash3 4y ago
    Only barely
  - greenpeas 4y ago
    The fear is not that they will use nukes during the collapse, but that after the collapse, there will be multiple smaller nations, each with their own supply of nukes and unpredictable governments. This was also a concern during the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the US government worked closely with the USSR government to make sure that all nuclear weapons remain within Russia. In particular, Ukraine was forced/convinced to give up its nuclear arsenal.
    - nnoitra 4y ago
      Why aren't you afraid that Israel has nukes or Pakistan?
      - throwayyy479087 4y ago
        I am worried about Pakistan’s nukes. Israel has been a responsible regional power and I’m Jewish so i don’t worry about them.
        nnoitra 4y ago
        And when has Russia or Pakistan used nukes?
  - mcv 4y ago
    They didn't, but those nukes did end up in various member states. The last couple months people have talked a lot about the 1993 deal between the US, Russia and Ukraine that got Ukraine to give up its nukes in exchange of (now apparently worthless) guarantees of territorial integrity. If Russia collapses, there's going to be mostly tribal territories in Siberia that have nukes.
baobob 4y ago
I feel like this definitely needs to be expanded. What makes you think that? Their currency is stronger than before the war (despite internal fragility) They have the entire continent of Europe by the balls on oil/gas They've made an absolute killing in the energy sector this year due to the fear and scarcity they have created. They're making steady gains in their war in Ukraine They have the ear and economic heart of China
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- pavlov 4y ago
  All of these are illusions. The currency is propped up by the government because it's not freely exchanged anymore. Europe is making a massive turn away from Russian energy despite the medium-term pain. The Russian military has achieved very little in five months of warfare. And China genuinely doesn't care about Russia. If the Russian Federation were to balkanize into smaller states, the Chinese leaders certainly wouldn't mind.
  - ed25519FUUU 4y ago
    I’m also confused about OP. Military now controls some the largest and most productive farmland in Europe. And the Ruble remains strong because Russia is insisting on taking payments in Rubles, and Europe agrees or will freeze to death this winter.
    - mcv 4y ago
      Europe is working hard on getting their energy from other sources. And once they've done that, they're not going back to Russian gas. In the long term, this is absolutely a loss for Russia.
      - baobob 4y ago
        Germany will not build any new LNG terminals when in a few short years they can just resume buying from the cheapest seller, before the first new terminal has even finished being constructed. Simultaneously Russia is not stupid enough to completely cut off the gas and trigger a total crisis. They are pulling on the chains but they understand the risk to the relationship just as well as you do. Don't forget all the gas supply shortages to date have been justified in terms of required maintenances and problems due to western sanctions. That's paving a route for resumption of normal relations between both parties at a later date with no loss of face for either party.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
stenl 4y ago
Some observations in support, by researchers at Yale: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193
- baobob 4y ago
  Slides for the intellectually sloven https://yale.app.box.com/s/7f6agg5ezscj234kahx35lil04udqgeo https://yale.app.box.com/s/7f6agg5ezscj234kahx35lil04udqgeo
innagadadavida 4y ago
IMO Russia is just a pawn in this game with China. US is in two win-win scenarios with both Russia and China. Currently Russia has its hands tied and cannot interfere or support China if the Taiwan thing gets bigger. Also, irrespective of Russia winning or loosing, Europe will increase usage of American oil and gas. If China wins in a Taiwan takeover, the semiconductor industry will double up in America and if loses, then America will have military dominance in the region. Unless something really crazy happens, US will come out on top again and crush both Russia and China and also increase exports to Europe.
euroderf 4y ago
Don't bet on it. Russia has been totally screwed up for 800 years and will be totally screwed up for another 800 years, but thru it all, ya still got yerself 1600 years of Russia.

mcv 4y ago

I fear this is a definite possibility, and it's terrifying. Because the main thing that Russia has, their only real claim to being a major power, and the only reason why they've been able to get away with their invasion, is their nukes. And if the country really collapses, who knows what will happen to those nukes? I don't mean to upset anyone, and I think the chance of collapse is small, but it's not zero.

leesec 4y ago
They didn't use nukes during the collapse of Soviet Union.
- trash3 4y ago
  Only barely
- greenpeas 4y ago
  The fear is not that they will use nukes during the collapse, but that after the collapse, there will be multiple smaller nations, each with their own supply of nukes and unpredictable governments. This was also a concern during the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the US government worked closely with the USSR government to make sure that all nuclear weapons remain within Russia. In particular, Ukraine was forced/convinced to give up its nuclear arsenal.
  - nnoitra 4y ago
    Why aren't you afraid that Israel has nukes or Pakistan?
    - throwayyy479087 4y ago
      I am worried about Pakistan’s nukes. Israel has been a responsible regional power and I’m Jewish so i don’t worry about them.
      - nnoitra 4y ago
        And when has Russia or Pakistan used nukes?
- mcv 4y ago
  They didn't, but those nukes did end up in various member states. The last couple months people have talked a lot about the 1993 deal between the US, Russia and Ukraine that got Ukraine to give up its nukes in exchange of (now apparently worthless) guarantees of territorial integrity. If Russia collapses, there's going to be mostly tribal territories in Siberia that have nukes.

baobob 4y ago

I feel like this definitely needs to be expanded. What makes you think that? Their currency is stronger than before the war (despite internal fragility) They have the entire continent of Europe by the balls on oil/gas They've made an absolute killing in the energy sector this year due to the fear and scarcity they have created. They're making steady gains in their war in Ukraine They have the ear and economic heart of China

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
pavlov 4y ago
All of these are illusions. The currency is propped up by the government because it's not freely exchanged anymore. Europe is making a massive turn away from Russian energy despite the medium-term pain. The Russian military has achieved very little in five months of warfare. And China genuinely doesn't care about Russia. If the Russian Federation were to balkanize into smaller states, the Chinese leaders certainly wouldn't mind.
- ed25519FUUU 4y ago
  I’m also confused about OP. Military now controls some the largest and most productive farmland in Europe. And the Ruble remains strong because Russia is insisting on taking payments in Rubles, and Europe agrees or will freeze to death this winter.
  - mcv 4y ago
    Europe is working hard on getting their energy from other sources. And once they've done that, they're not going back to Russian gas. In the long term, this is absolutely a loss for Russia.
    - baobob 4y ago
      Germany will not build any new LNG terminals when in a few short years they can just resume buying from the cheapest seller, before the first new terminal has even finished being constructed. Simultaneously Russia is not stupid enough to completely cut off the gas and trigger a total crisis. They are pulling on the chains but they understand the risk to the relationship just as well as you do. Don't forget all the gas supply shortages to date have been justified in terms of required maintenances and problems due to western sanctions. That's paving a route for resumption of normal relations between both parties at a later date with no loss of face for either party.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

stenl 4y ago

Some observations in support, by researchers at Yale: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193

baobob 4y ago
Slides for the intellectually sloven https://yale.app.box.com/s/7f6agg5ezscj234kahx35lil04udqgeo https://yale.app.box.com/s/7f6agg5ezscj234kahx35lil04udqgeo

innagadadavida 4y ago

IMO Russia is just a pawn in this game with China. US is in two win-win scenarios with both Russia and China. Currently Russia has its hands tied and cannot interfere or support China if the Taiwan thing gets bigger. Also, irrespective of Russia winning or loosing, Europe will increase usage of American oil and gas. If China wins in a Taiwan takeover, the semiconductor industry will double up in America and if loses, then America will have military dominance in the region. Unless something really crazy happens, US will come out on top again and crush both Russia and China and also increase exports to Europe.

euroderf 4y ago

Don't bet on it. Russia has been totally screwed up for 800 years and will be totally screwed up for another 800 years, but thru it all, ya still got yerself 1600 years of Russia.