4 ms·
I'm interested in where you feel the numerical value of "not unlikely" falls on a scale such as the one from Lesson 1 of this article. https://hbr.org/2018/07/
by cheschire 4y ago
I'm interested in where you feel the numerical value of "not unlikely" falls on a scale such as the one from Lesson 1 of this article.
https://hbr.org/2018/07/if-you-say-something-is-likely-how-likely-do-people-think-it-is https://hbr.org/2018/07/if-you-say-something-is-likely-how-l...
- codebolt 4y agohttps://earth-planets-space.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40623-022-01676-5 https://earth-planets-space.springeropen.com/articles/10.118... This recent paper from Japan estimates the following likelihood for what it calls "extremely large solar flares": > for 30-, 50-, and 100-year periods to be 0.70−0.76, 0.87−0.91, and 0.98−0.99, respectively
- cheschire 4y agoPerfect, thank you! I find much more value in numerical expression when it comes to topics about future events than the fuzzy and loaded English terms we tend to use in casual conversation. I had the wrong impression about your previous message based on my own preconceived notions, and numbers reduce all that.
- codebolt 4y agoNo problem, I should have been more specific when I wrote my initial comment but I was too lazy to pull up the exact reference until you challenged me (I somewhat randomly saw this paper a few days ago, initially).