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The threat most developers should be concerned about is what happens once a major solar flare (like the Carrington event in 1859) shows up. That is destined to

The threat most developers should be concerned about is what happens once a major solar flare (like the Carrington event in 1859) shows up. That is destined to happen at some point, and not unlikely within the next few decades. Hard to predict the fallout for the internet and other technical infastructure more broadly, but I'm guessing it won't be pretty.

cheschire 4y ago
I'm interested in where you feel the numerical value of "not unlikely" falls on a scale such as the one from Lesson 1 of this article. https://hbr.org/2018/07/if-you-say-something-is-likely-how-likely-do-people-think-it-is https://hbr.org/2018/07/if-you-say-something-is-likely-how-l...
- codebolt 4y ago
  https://earth-planets-space.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40623-022-01676-5 https://earth-planets-space.springeropen.com/articles/10.118... This recent paper from Japan estimates the following likelihood for what it calls "extremely large solar flares": > for 30-, 50-, and 100-year periods to be 0.70−0.76, 0.87−0.91, and 0.98−0.99, respectively
  - cheschire 4y ago
    Perfect, thank you! I find much more value in numerical expression when it comes to topics about future events than the fuzzy and loaded English terms we tend to use in casual conversation. I had the wrong impression about your previous message based on my own preconceived notions, and numbers reduce all that.
    - codebolt 4y ago
      No problem, I should have been more specific when I wrote my initial comment but I was too lazy to pull up the exact reference until you challenged me (I somewhat randomly saw this paper a few days ago, initially).
Springtime 4y ago
Interestingly after reading a bit of the Wikipedia article on that event the Earth apparently missed experiencing another solar storm of equivalent strength in 2012[1] by just a number of days. Estimates in the linked article expect had it been facing Earth at the time the recovery would have taken 4-10 years. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2012_solar_storm https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2012_solar_storm

cheschire 4y ago

I'm interested in where you feel the numerical value of "not unlikely" falls on a scale such as the one from Lesson 1 of this article. https://hbr.org/2018/07/if-you-say-something-is-likely-how-likely-do-people-think-it-is https://hbr.org/2018/07/if-you-say-something-is-likely-how-l...

codebolt 4y ago
https://earth-planets-space.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40623-022-01676-5 https://earth-planets-space.springeropen.com/articles/10.118... This recent paper from Japan estimates the following likelihood for what it calls "extremely large solar flares": > for 30-, 50-, and 100-year periods to be 0.70−0.76, 0.87−0.91, and 0.98−0.99, respectively
- cheschire 4y ago
  Perfect, thank you! I find much more value in numerical expression when it comes to topics about future events than the fuzzy and loaded English terms we tend to use in casual conversation. I had the wrong impression about your previous message based on my own preconceived notions, and numbers reduce all that.
  - codebolt 4y ago
    No problem, I should have been more specific when I wrote my initial comment but I was too lazy to pull up the exact reference until you challenged me (I somewhat randomly saw this paper a few days ago, initially).

Springtime 4y ago

Interestingly after reading a bit of the Wikipedia article on that event the Earth apparently missed experiencing another solar storm of equivalent strength in 2012[1] by just a number of days. Estimates in the linked article expect had it been facing Earth at the time the recovery would have taken 4-10 years. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2012_solar_storm https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2012_solar_storm