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If you look at human history, desperation always triggered innovation. 120+ years ago people predicted that the streets would soon drown in horse manure. It was
by matrix_overload 4y ago
If you look at human history, desperation always triggered innovation. 120+ years ago people predicted that the streets would soon drown in horse manure. It wasn't averted by introducing horse taxes and auctioning limited-issue passes to leave your estate. It was fixed by transition to cars, that quickly sparked a whole new industry, radically improving the designs one after another.
Similar will happen with climate change. Once we get desperate enough (as in actual crop failures and actual fear of hunger), suddenly, figuring out mitigation and reversing techniques will become more profitable than minting shitcoins, and the humanity will very quickly figure something out.
Currently, the real desperation isn't there yet. There is a lot of fearmongering driven by hunger for power (restricting what others can do is power) or corporate profits (electric cars are a huge business niche that is only competitive due to the climate angle). It is doing its part, but it's akin to driving at half the speed to conserve fuel, while simultaneously having a huge leaky hole in the gas tank. Better than nothing, but won't fully solve the problem.
The best we can do currently is try to not completely forget the real scientific method (experiment -> theorize -> refine -> reproduce -> question -> improve) and the real project management (specific, measurable, achievable, realistic, timely goals with prioritization by cost/reward/risk). We will need those thigs when the shit really hits the fan and they are currently being very rapidly eroded in favor of pledging loyalty to the unquestionable leader and throwing poop at the competing tribe.
- pas 4y agoinnovation is not a faucet, you can't just pour a big one when you feel like it. of course you know this, but you identify "desperation" as the fuel for it. which is definitely a big part of our human struggle, but that doesn't mean we can't do better by looking at exactly those previous transformational periods. (and we can see that it did not affect everyone the same, hence waiting for crop failures in areas that emit the vast majority of CO2 means condemning tens/hundreds of millions of people to having a super doubleplus ungood time. oh and that's when wars start, when desperation makes it look like a better alternative.) it was not innovation that decreased smog and lead pollution. yet at the same time there's this paradox of history drawing straight lines on graphs: https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/03/13/does-reality-drive-straight-lines-on-graphs-or-do-straight-lines-on-graphs-drive-reality/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/03/13/does-reality-drive-str... switching to cars generated a lot of economic surplus directly. just as back in the days the new railway lines. the problem with CO2 that it's an externality. exactly that horse to car switch introduced this hidden trade off, and we need to make it seen, and then markets can/will pick the innovative solutions that optimize for less CO2.