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The other issues are important as well, but semis run everything we use. For instance, nearly half the world's display drivers are made in Taiwan. These can be
by another_story 4y ago
The other issues are important as well, but semis run everything we use. For instance, nearly half the world's display drivers are made in Taiwan. These can be made elsewhere but will take time to find production capacity.
Do we have the technological capability to recycle old semis to work with current systems to keep things running? Do enough people have this skillset? I'm sure we figureit out, but I doubt it there are enough people to really get it moving. With a severe lack of chips we'll see systems falter or all out crash as components wear out and can't be easily replaced. I think you're underestimating how much runs on what Taiwan produces and I don't think "economics" can bring more production online in a meaningful time frame.
- yyyk 4y agoSemis run everything, but: they wear out slowly, there's a long line of consumer semis for reuse, and few systems require the latest semi tech; There's extra capacity in the West for the older semi tech. It's understandable HN community would focus on semis, but compared to 'financial crash worse than 2008' and 'Would all people be able to get food next month?' semis aren't that important. Semi production would be a slow long-term crisis we would be able to adjust to if we could handle effectively the initial very big short-term crises resulting from a massive war. As Keynes put it: "In the long run we're all dead". If we couldn't handle the initial short-term economic crises we'll have bigger problems than long-term semi production adjustment. If we can, we could handle adjusting semi production and use. It's not that it isn't an issue, it's just way less important and less difficult than the other issues.