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Climate migration. What happens Europe now/since 2015 is nothing that will come in the next couple of years. And the individual countries and so as the EU is pr

Climate migration. What happens Europe now/since 2015 is nothing that will come in the next couple of years. And the individual countries and so as the EU is pretty much unprepared. I'd even say that will be one of the cause of downfall of the union.

majewsky 4y ago
I agree, but I don't think the "few people talk about it" criterion applies. It's not that it doesn't come up in debates, it's that nothing much comes of it (yet).
- JasserInicide 4y ago
  Nothing comes of it because we're regressed into a hyper-sensitive society where topics that remotely involve race can't be discussed anymore for fear of someone's feelings getting hurt. Empires have collapsed in the past because of migrations of peoples, this is potentially no exception.
elevenoh 4y ago
nokya 4y ago
I am under the impression that instead of preparing for climate immigration, EU citizens are actually slowly but surely mutually brainwashing themselves into increasing hate towards immigrants as a whole. From what I read and understood about climate change, a tsunami of immigrants from southern hemisphere countries towards northern hemisphere countries is to be expected. I would rather have my elected ones work on a framework that will govern how this immigration could occur and how to make it work in everyone's bests interests. But it seems that people will mostly vote for whoever tells them he or she will make the country impenetrable. Europe's population is aging drastically, we make less children and our workforce is shrinking. We produce less people that can offer social/medical/health care to the elders, less people who can pay taxes, and also less people who can defend the territory in case of armed conflict. Retirement planning is a catastrophy (younger generations are privileging individualized financial planning mechanisms instead of State protected and tax deducible solutions, and conversion rates for pension funds are also diminishing year after year). Finally, "non-white" immigrants seem to be perceived by locals as posing a security threat and nothing more. Whether I look at my family, my friends or my colleagues, I feel surrounded by people who refuse to engage in the thought experiment further than "we should reinforce our borders". Am I in denial when I acknowledge that both a mass immigration will occur towards the northern hemisphere, whether smoothly, or by force, and that any economy needs to preserve a strong workforce to keep florishing? What am I missing here?
- snidane 4y ago
  Europeans would rather go Japan - ie. keep their national identity and downsize, than America - healthy demographics, but constant cultural clashes and crime waves.
  - ikurei 4y ago
    Do you think then that those crime waves in America are mainly caused by immigration, or by racial/cultural diversity? Care to elaborate?
    - nokya 4y ago
      In full honesty, I fail to see how crime waves in the USA could be explained by immigration or racial/cultural diversity. From what I understand, it is mostly a consequence of families living through precarious jobs (and poverty), limited access to good education and a general lack of trust in the government, which they either perceive as powerless, or extremely unfair/brutal. If I acknowledge that some communities are more likely to live their daily lives under these three factors altogether, it could explain why these communities may be more vulnerable to daily life challenges, and more easily resort to violence. Still, that doesn't give me a causal link between racial/cultural diversity and violence, far from it, but I can understand why those who prefer taking shortcuts may end up reaching this conclusion. This shortcut is also very comfortable for the peace of mind: once I attribute violence to racial/cultural diversity, I can also safely conclude that I will never be part of the problem (if I consider myself as being part of the "good" racial/cultural group)...
      - poisonarena 4y ago
        I have lived in some of the poorest areas in Brazil, United States, Colombia, and Mexico. I have also lived in Moldova, and some really shitty parts of south St. Petersburg in Russia, and Kyiv. I have noticed a very very very strong correlation of how dangerous it can be just to walk outside alone, or at night, or walk in public with your cellphone. I believe there is a link between violence and race and culture.
CalRobert 4y ago
This is one of the reasons we moved from California to Ireland. People thought it was weird in 2013. Less so now.
- collyw 4y ago
  They were telling us Manhattan would be underwater by now 20 years ago.
  - xpe 4y ago
    Please state your exact point. One narrow interpretation is that one particular study that you did not cite got it wrong. One broad interpretation is that we should not pay attention or give credence to the good faith estimates offered at the time. I get tired of snarky one-liners that don't say what they mean. They do not promote useful discussion. My comment here would not be necessary if you took a few minutes to elaborate about what you meant. Lastly: Estimates change. No model is perfect but some are useful.
    - claytongulick 4y ago
      Not the OP, but I think the point is valid. I was born in the 70s, and my entire life I've been hearing climate alarmism - the end of the world is nigh (or just around the corner). No, really, this time it's for real! Donate here to stop it. Most of the "solutions" I've seen are worse than the problem. Recycling was a major con that no one wants to talk about. Carbon offset credits? Really? With the amount of alarmism and blatant opportunism in the space, it's pretty hard to sift through and focus on real, meaningful change. Like not wasting precious aquifer water on lawns. Simple stuff that would have real impact. Taxing the hell out of single use plastic water bottles. We've done it before. The anti CFC thing was a huge success. Seems like that should be a model to follow. Instead of pearl-clutching global alarmism, we should narrowly focus on concrete problems with real, measurable solutions, and address them one by one.
      - CalRobert 4y ago
paganel 4y ago
We'll most probably increase the handouts to the autocrats bordering us, so that they'll do the dirty job in our place. See Erdogan, see how what was basically a State coup went almost unnoticed in Tunisia.
swader999 4y ago
I'd argue we'll see more around 'Climate Mitigation' than migration.
ZeroGravitas 4y ago
Just to be contrary, I feel it's worth considering that as solar overtakes wind as the cheapest electrical source and keeps dropping, and everything electrifies, even fertiliser and methane production, the migration might go in the other direction. Sun too hot for agriculture? Stick some PV over it as shade. Not enough water, stick some PV over it for shade, use it to power trickle irrigation of desalinated water. If carbon offsets are used to install PV in such nations, it's a win-win-win-win. Another post talks about a new generation buying battery EV RVs to live in. If they did, where would they tend to go? Somewhere where the climate provides cheap solar power and low heating needs.

majewsky 4y ago

I agree, but I don't think the "few people talk about it" criterion applies. It's not that it doesn't come up in debates, it's that nothing much comes of it (yet).

JasserInicide 4y ago
Nothing comes of it because we're regressed into a hyper-sensitive society where topics that remotely involve race can't be discussed anymore for fear of someone's feelings getting hurt. Empires have collapsed in the past because of migrations of peoples, this is potentially no exception.

elevenoh 4y ago

nokya 4y ago

I am under the impression that instead of preparing for climate immigration, EU citizens are actually slowly but surely mutually brainwashing themselves into increasing hate towards immigrants as a whole. From what I read and understood about climate change, a tsunami of immigrants from southern hemisphere countries towards northern hemisphere countries is to be expected. I would rather have my elected ones work on a framework that will govern how this immigration could occur and how to make it work in everyone's bests interests. But it seems that people will mostly vote for whoever tells them he or she will make the country impenetrable. Europe's population is aging drastically, we make less children and our workforce is shrinking. We produce less people that can offer social/medical/health care to the elders, less people who can pay taxes, and also less people who can defend the territory in case of armed conflict. Retirement planning is a catastrophy (younger generations are privileging individualized financial planning mechanisms instead of State protected and tax deducible solutions, and conversion rates for pension funds are also diminishing year after year). Finally, "non-white" immigrants seem to be perceived by locals as posing a security threat and nothing more. Whether I look at my family, my friends or my colleagues, I feel surrounded by people who refuse to engage in the thought experiment further than "we should reinforce our borders". Am I in denial when I acknowledge that both a mass immigration will occur towards the northern hemisphere, whether smoothly, or by force, and that any economy needs to preserve a strong workforce to keep florishing? What am I missing here?

snidane 4y ago
Europeans would rather go Japan - ie. keep their national identity and downsize, than America - healthy demographics, but constant cultural clashes and crime waves.
- ikurei 4y ago
  Do you think then that those crime waves in America are mainly caused by immigration, or by racial/cultural diversity? Care to elaborate?
  - nokya 4y ago
    In full honesty, I fail to see how crime waves in the USA could be explained by immigration or racial/cultural diversity. From what I understand, it is mostly a consequence of families living through precarious jobs (and poverty), limited access to good education and a general lack of trust in the government, which they either perceive as powerless, or extremely unfair/brutal. If I acknowledge that some communities are more likely to live their daily lives under these three factors altogether, it could explain why these communities may be more vulnerable to daily life challenges, and more easily resort to violence. Still, that doesn't give me a causal link between racial/cultural diversity and violence, far from it, but I can understand why those who prefer taking shortcuts may end up reaching this conclusion. This shortcut is also very comfortable for the peace of mind: once I attribute violence to racial/cultural diversity, I can also safely conclude that I will never be part of the problem (if I consider myself as being part of the "good" racial/cultural group)...
    - poisonarena 4y ago
      I have lived in some of the poorest areas in Brazil, United States, Colombia, and Mexico. I have also lived in Moldova, and some really shitty parts of south St. Petersburg in Russia, and Kyiv. I have noticed a very very very strong correlation of how dangerous it can be just to walk outside alone, or at night, or walk in public with your cellphone. I believe there is a link between violence and race and culture.

CalRobert 4y ago

This is one of the reasons we moved from California to Ireland. People thought it was weird in 2013. Less so now.

collyw 4y ago
They were telling us Manhattan would be underwater by now 20 years ago.
- xpe 4y ago
  Please state your exact point. One narrow interpretation is that one particular study that you did not cite got it wrong. One broad interpretation is that we should not pay attention or give credence to the good faith estimates offered at the time. I get tired of snarky one-liners that don't say what they mean. They do not promote useful discussion. My comment here would not be necessary if you took a few minutes to elaborate about what you meant. Lastly: Estimates change. No model is perfect but some are useful.
  - claytongulick 4y ago
    Not the OP, but I think the point is valid. I was born in the 70s, and my entire life I've been hearing climate alarmism - the end of the world is nigh (or just around the corner). No, really, this time it's for real! Donate here to stop it. Most of the "solutions" I've seen are worse than the problem. Recycling was a major con that no one wants to talk about. Carbon offset credits? Really? With the amount of alarmism and blatant opportunism in the space, it's pretty hard to sift through and focus on real, meaningful change. Like not wasting precious aquifer water on lawns. Simple stuff that would have real impact. Taxing the hell out of single use plastic water bottles. We've done it before. The anti CFC thing was a huge success. Seems like that should be a model to follow. Instead of pearl-clutching global alarmism, we should narrowly focus on concrete problems with real, measurable solutions, and address them one by one.
    - CalRobert 4y ago

paganel 4y ago

We'll most probably increase the handouts to the autocrats bordering us, so that they'll do the dirty job in our place. See Erdogan, see how what was basically a State coup went almost unnoticed in Tunisia.

swader999 4y ago

I'd argue we'll see more around 'Climate Mitigation' than migration.

ZeroGravitas 4y ago

Just to be contrary, I feel it's worth considering that as solar overtakes wind as the cheapest electrical source and keeps dropping, and everything electrifies, even fertiliser and methane production, the migration might go in the other direction. Sun too hot for agriculture? Stick some PV over it as shade. Not enough water, stick some PV over it for shade, use it to power trickle irrigation of desalinated water. If carbon offsets are used to install PV in such nations, it's a win-win-win-win. Another post talks about a new generation buying battery EV RVs to live in. If they did, where would they tend to go? Somewhere where the climate provides cheap solar power and low heating needs.