4 ms·

I believe the next big thing will be the productization of building a home anywhere, without requiring municipal infrastructure. There is still a ways to go in

I believe the next big thing will be the productization of building a home anywhere, without requiring municipal infrastructure. There is still a ways to go in terms of technology to make it all happen and make it affordable. But at some point, it will really reconfigure where and how we all live.

dotancohen 4y ago
Including water and sewer? I can envision local electricity generation and wireless communication. But not every home can support a well and septic system.
- mountainriver 4y ago
  I guess a well and a septic tank? Lived that way for awhile up in the mountains and it was tough
  - oceanplexian 4y ago
    I mean, I grew up with a well and septic tank and my life was literally no different than living in an apartment in the city. It’s not like a radical off-the-grid thing millions of homes are this way.
    - chris1993 4y ago
      Particularly when you look at modern septic which do tertiary treatment with inputs of power and a chlorine block every six months.
- villmann 4y ago
  I just installed incineration toilet at my cabin. Works great and burns the shit to ashes. Works with a gass balloon and a 12V battery. 220V option being available.
Dylovell 4y ago
This is something I have been think about for the past 10 year as well. If we can get enough cheap power production, incinerating toilets seem interesting. And the growth satellite internet is a big win for this area.
- muttled 4y ago
  And then we have companies like Space Mobile trying to essentially put cell phone towers in low earth orbit which will (hopefully) enable 4G/5G coverage all over the globe.
CalRobert 4y ago
How will transport work? One of the big issues with homes built in distant areas is the expectation of roads (and car dependency in general)
- contingencies 4y ago
  Fixed wing drones are becoming super cheap, and are far simpler than their copter-classed counterparts. While handover needs smoothing out, delivery will thus be easy for items of daily use. Less so for furniture, appliances, etc. However, if you are willing to deal with foam furniture, earth building or felling a couple of trees on site, robotics could still have you covered.
  - dont__panic 4y ago
    Do you foresee fixed wing drones also displacing cars? Would be awfully nice to no longer need to build highways and roads...
    - contingencies 4y ago
      No. Maybe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground-effect_vehicle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground-effect_vehicle A 2014 study by students at NASA's Ames Research Center claims that use of GEVs for passenger travel could lead to cheaper flights, increased accessibility and less pollution. https://youtu.be/3heh9swH2Zw?t=66 https://youtu.be/3heh9swH2Zw?t=66
  - BWStearns 4y ago
    I'm convinced that fixed wing drones will dominate the drone delivery market. The payload capacity difference for size and cost is just too large. Barring some truly revolutionary step change in power storage density, any battery improvements that benefit the multirotors will benefit fixed wings even more.
    - contingencies 4y ago
      It's a tradeoff. The problems with fixed wing are difficulties maneuvering in crowded low-altitude urban airspace, energy and space required for takeoff, higher speed and mass thus force of impact, and at the point of delivery there's no easy way to hover without going hybrid and the alternative of simply dropping people's goods to the ground with parachutes doesn't result in an ideal delivery experience. This is often fudged with extra packaging, which is environmentally irresponsible as well as spatially constraining for payloads on already limited airframes. Copters are roughly superior in all these regards, but can't go very far due to energy inefficiency and tend to be noisier. I think copters will dominate urban/precision/high value or theft risk, and locally sourced retail such as food, whereas fixed wing will be suburban/semi-rural/rural/industrial/low precision/low value or theft risk, and further sources retail such as hardware, commercial and industrial supplies. It's been somewhat amusing to see the huge amount of money in the space and watch the strategic directions of Amazon Prime Air (hexacopter; 5lbs max payload; 'drop' strategy), Google Wing (hybrid + 'lower on a cord' strategy; numerous designs), Manna (quadcopter), Zipline (fixed wing + 'parachute' strategy; larger payload).
natoliniak 4y ago
I really hope that this will happen, but I'm skeptical. The push to cluster around big cities is still accelerating and land scarcity around big metro areas is what is driving out affordability. Utilities connection constitutes a small and almost insignificant cost of total urban residential construction. If a global pandemic couldn't stop this trend, then I don't think we will ever live in an affordable distributed civilization.
jbms 4y ago
Interesting, what about whole villages or modules of a town. Kickstarter, where if everyone commits a certain cost a whole new concept village or town is built somewhere. Cities at sea may need something like this to get going. A company wanting to build a plant next to a resource they need could acquire a town for its workforce.

dotancohen 4y ago

Including water and sewer? I can envision local electricity generation and wireless communication. But not every home can support a well and septic system.

mountainriver 4y ago
I guess a well and a septic tank? Lived that way for awhile up in the mountains and it was tough
- oceanplexian 4y ago
  I mean, I grew up with a well and septic tank and my life was literally no different than living in an apartment in the city. It’s not like a radical off-the-grid thing millions of homes are this way.
  - chris1993 4y ago
    Particularly when you look at modern septic which do tertiary treatment with inputs of power and a chlorine block every six months.
villmann 4y ago
I just installed incineration toilet at my cabin. Works great and burns the shit to ashes. Works with a gass balloon and a 12V battery. 220V option being available.

Dylovell 4y ago

This is something I have been think about for the past 10 year as well. If we can get enough cheap power production, incinerating toilets seem interesting. And the growth satellite internet is a big win for this area.

muttled 4y ago
And then we have companies like Space Mobile trying to essentially put cell phone towers in low earth orbit which will (hopefully) enable 4G/5G coverage all over the globe.

CalRobert 4y ago

How will transport work? One of the big issues with homes built in distant areas is the expectation of roads (and car dependency in general)

contingencies 4y ago
Fixed wing drones are becoming super cheap, and are far simpler than their copter-classed counterparts. While handover needs smoothing out, delivery will thus be easy for items of daily use. Less so for furniture, appliances, etc. However, if you are willing to deal with foam furniture, earth building or felling a couple of trees on site, robotics could still have you covered.
- dont__panic 4y ago
  Do you foresee fixed wing drones also displacing cars? Would be awfully nice to no longer need to build highways and roads...
  - contingencies 4y ago
    No. Maybe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground-effect_vehicle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground-effect_vehicle A 2014 study by students at NASA's Ames Research Center claims that use of GEVs for passenger travel could lead to cheaper flights, increased accessibility and less pollution. https://youtu.be/3heh9swH2Zw?t=66 https://youtu.be/3heh9swH2Zw?t=66
- BWStearns 4y ago
  I'm convinced that fixed wing drones will dominate the drone delivery market. The payload capacity difference for size and cost is just too large. Barring some truly revolutionary step change in power storage density, any battery improvements that benefit the multirotors will benefit fixed wings even more.
  - contingencies 4y ago
    It's a tradeoff. The problems with fixed wing are difficulties maneuvering in crowded low-altitude urban airspace, energy and space required for takeoff, higher speed and mass thus force of impact, and at the point of delivery there's no easy way to hover without going hybrid and the alternative of simply dropping people's goods to the ground with parachutes doesn't result in an ideal delivery experience. This is often fudged with extra packaging, which is environmentally irresponsible as well as spatially constraining for payloads on already limited airframes. Copters are roughly superior in all these regards, but can't go very far due to energy inefficiency and tend to be noisier. I think copters will dominate urban/precision/high value or theft risk, and locally sourced retail such as food, whereas fixed wing will be suburban/semi-rural/rural/industrial/low precision/low value or theft risk, and further sources retail such as hardware, commercial and industrial supplies. It's been somewhat amusing to see the huge amount of money in the space and watch the strategic directions of Amazon Prime Air (hexacopter; 5lbs max payload; 'drop' strategy), Google Wing (hybrid + 'lower on a cord' strategy; numerous designs), Manna (quadcopter), Zipline (fixed wing + 'parachute' strategy; larger payload).

natoliniak 4y ago

I really hope that this will happen, but I'm skeptical. The push to cluster around big cities is still accelerating and land scarcity around big metro areas is what is driving out affordability. Utilities connection constitutes a small and almost insignificant cost of total urban residential construction. If a global pandemic couldn't stop this trend, then I don't think we will ever live in an affordable distributed civilization.

jbms 4y ago

Interesting, what about whole villages or modules of a town. Kickstarter, where if everyone commits a certain cost a whole new concept village or town is built somewhere. Cities at sea may need something like this to get going. A company wanting to build a plant next to a resource they need could acquire a town for its workforce.