We're decades away from having a Mars colony, and decades more from it being self sufficient. In that time period, the prospects of such a colony exercising pol

We're decades away from having a Mars colony, and decades more from it being self sufficient. In that time period, the prospects of such a colony exercising political independence is doubtful. While it's dependent on Earth (and e.g. SpaceX is dependent on US government support for its launch site and many of its more hazardous materials), then it can't meaningfully ignore the host country of facilities on Earth. So in Musk's lifetime, the most he can hope for is a corporate funded US controlled research base of some sort. I think legally the treaties on outer space are that it's common hold and therefore not subject to countries exercising exclusive sovreignty, though obviously such a claim, as with Antartica, is easier for everyone to agree on when there's severe technical difficulties with no equivalent benefit to be had in investing in this. Should that change, and some technical advance renders a Mars colony much easier than expected these days or much more valuable than expected, then that official neutrality that will be renegotiated, and it would probably look like the scramble for africa with more of a veneer of trying to be respectful. But we're well into sci-fi territory at that point.