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This makes no sense. The economic damage of removing over half the chip market in a short period of time would be immense. Even if we don't need high end chips,

This makes no sense. The economic damage of removing over half the chip market in a short period of time would be immense. Even if we don't need high end chips, which we absolutely do need, Taiwan and TSMC still make plenty of all sorts of chips that go into every day devices. If TSMC falls, along with Taiwan, we're looking at the cost of everything electronic soaring. It'll make the run on graphics cards due to crypto miners a quaint memory.

yyyk 4y ago
The older tech is way more tractable, and there will also be chip recycling to help. Economics will ensure supply catches up, except the highest end chips. I find the focus on chips bewildering, since there are so many more critical issues like 'how do we prevent a stock market run and the crash of every company which outsourced manufacturing to China?' or (if you live in China) 'where do I get a food ration card?', if this gets real bad. Semis are merely an annoyance.
- another_story 4y ago
  The other issues are important as well, but semis run everything we use. For instance, nearly half the world's display drivers are made in Taiwan. These can be made elsewhere but will take time to find production capacity. Do we have the technological capability to recycle old semis to work with current systems to keep things running? Do enough people have this skillset? I'm sure we figureit out, but I doubt it there are enough people to really get it moving. With a severe lack of chips we'll see systems falter or all out crash as components wear out and can't be easily replaced. I think you're underestimating how much runs on what Taiwan produces and I don't think "economics" can bring more production online in a meaningful time frame.
  - yyyk 4y ago
    Semis run everything, but: they wear out slowly, there's a long line of consumer semis for reuse, and few systems require the latest semi tech; There's extra capacity in the West for the older semi tech. It's understandable HN community would focus on semis, but compared to 'financial crash worse than 2008' and 'Would all people be able to get food next month?' semis aren't that important. Semi production would be a slow long-term crisis we would be able to adjust to if we could handle effectively the initial very big short-term crises resulting from a massive war. As Keynes put it: "In the long run we're all dead". If we couldn't handle the initial short-term economic crises we'll have bigger problems than long-term semi production adjustment. If we can, we could handle adjusting semi production and use. It's not that it isn't an issue, it's just way less important and less difficult than the other issues.

yyyk 4y ago

The older tech is way more tractable, and there will also be chip recycling to help. Economics will ensure supply catches up, except the highest end chips. I find the focus on chips bewildering, since there are so many more critical issues like 'how do we prevent a stock market run and the crash of every company which outsourced manufacturing to China?' or (if you live in China) 'where do I get a food ration card?', if this gets real bad. Semis are merely an annoyance.

another_story 4y ago
The other issues are important as well, but semis run everything we use. For instance, nearly half the world's display drivers are made in Taiwan. These can be made elsewhere but will take time to find production capacity. Do we have the technological capability to recycle old semis to work with current systems to keep things running? Do enough people have this skillset? I'm sure we figureit out, but I doubt it there are enough people to really get it moving. With a severe lack of chips we'll see systems falter or all out crash as components wear out and can't be easily replaced. I think you're underestimating how much runs on what Taiwan produces and I don't think "economics" can bring more production online in a meaningful time frame.
- yyyk 4y ago
  Semis run everything, but: they wear out slowly, there's a long line of consumer semis for reuse, and few systems require the latest semi tech; There's extra capacity in the West for the older semi tech. It's understandable HN community would focus on semis, but compared to 'financial crash worse than 2008' and 'Would all people be able to get food next month?' semis aren't that important. Semi production would be a slow long-term crisis we would be able to adjust to if we could handle effectively the initial very big short-term crises resulting from a massive war. As Keynes put it: "In the long run we're all dead". If we couldn't handle the initial short-term economic crises we'll have bigger problems than long-term semi production adjustment. If we can, we could handle adjusting semi production and use. It's not that it isn't an issue, it's just way less important and less difficult than the other issues.