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We already buy everything from China. Pretty much everything you own in your home is made in China already, including the computer you're using to browse HN and

We already buy everything from China. Pretty much everything you own in your home is made in China already, including the computer you're using to browse HN and the router you use to connect to internet. If China and the US severe relationships, the world will go into a depression anyways. Intel CEO Pat most certainly finessed the government into giving Intel a huge payout by exaggerating this threat.

Cyph0n 4y ago
There is a crucial difference between IC fabrication and almost everything else: we don’t even have the capability to fabricate at the most advanced nodes. On the other hand, we are capable of manufacturing everything else; we just need a bit of time to set things up and ramp up capacity. If we don’t gain that capability now, it will take us too long to recover when push actually comes to shove.
- User23 4y ago
  I think the USA is just as capable of writing fat checks to ASML as Taiwan is.
  - Cyph0n 4y ago
    There’s a bit more to IC fabrication than lithography. Regardless, I’d go further and argue that we should be building up the capability to manufacture our own EUV lithography machines.
    - User23 4y ago
      The USA developed the technology, holds the patents, and licensed them to ASML. They basically are our machines. That’s why Trump was able to block the China deal.
      - Cyph0n 4y ago
        Uh.. what? Can you share a link? As far as I am aware, it’s the exact opposite: over the years, ASML licensed some of their patents to US companies.
        User23 4y ago
        It’s surprisingly hard to craft a search query to get a nice link. Nevertheless, here[1] you can find a somewhat oblique reference. [1] https://asiatimes.com/2022/07/how-china-could-leapfrog-us-chip-making-bans/ https://asiatimes.com/2022/07/how-china-could-leapfrog-us-ch...
        Cyph0n 4y ago
        Ah, I think that’s referring to some of the suppliers (and IP) ASML uses to build its machines, not the EUV tech itself. If you think about it, ASML wouldn’t be this critical to semiconductor fabrication if it didn’t control the patents for its core tech.
- ac29 4y ago
  > we don’t even have the capability to fabricate at the most advanced nodes. I'm not sure that's entirely true. If we define "most advanced nodes" as 5nm-class fabrication, certainly Intel is doing that well now, just not in volume production. Intel 4 based Meteor Lake powered on and runs Windows as of earlier this year. No capability to build and not ready for volume manufacturing aren't really the same class of problem.
  - Cyph0n 4y ago
    So Intel is 2 years behind volume production of 5nm by TSMC and Samsung. To me, that sounds like a significant delay in capability. Anyways, I think the CHIPS Act was the right move at the right time. SMIC is quickly catching up thanks to near unlimited funding from the Chinese government. We need to play the same game if we ever want to catch up to TSMC.
dragontamer 4y ago
> We already buy everything from China. Pretty much everything you own in your home is made in China already, including the computer you're using to browse HN and the router you use to connect to internet. If China and the US severe relationships, the world will go into a depression anyways. Not as bad as if Taiwan's exports to the USA are stopped. We can build motherboards / pick-and-place machines in the USA. We literally cannot make the chips that are coming out of Taiwan right now. Samsung is the #2 IIRC, so maybe South Korea can pick up the slack in a hypothetical Taiwan-conflict. > Intel CEO Pat most certainly finessed the government into giving Intel a huge payout by exaggerating this threat. US Government is also got TSMC (Taiwan's semiconductor fabs) to build an Arizona fab-lab. Look, even Taiwan is scared of possible conflict and is hedging on the physical safety of the USA. Hopefully conflict doesn't happen, but the powers that be are making smart moves here. Hopefully it will be enough.
- Throwawayaerlei 4y ago
  "US Government is also got TSMC (Taiwan's semiconductor fabs) to build an Arizona fab-lab. Look, even Taiwan is scared of possible conflict and is hedging on the physical safety of the USA." I don't think that's the case, as I understand it this comes from the US wanting to onshore some of TSMC's capabilities and Taiwan screwing up electricity production on the island. It does Taiwan the government and ruling class no good whatsoever to place assets beyond the PRC's military reach, rather the incentives are entirely opposite of that. The more valuable TSMC's fab lines there are, the more incentive the US has to help with the ROC's defense, or war if it comes to that. Which in the case of torpedoes from attack subs can even be done with some plausible deniability.
  - dragontamer 4y ago
    https://www.tomshardware.com/news/tsmcs-arizona-fab-construction-emerges-at-breakneck-speed https://www.tomshardware.com/news/tsmcs-arizona-fab-construc... The TSMC factory in Arizona is full speed ahead. Its literally in Arizona right now, undergoing construction / hiring / spinning up.
- patentatt 4y ago

Cyph0n 4y ago

There is a crucial difference between IC fabrication and almost everything else: we don’t even have the capability to fabricate at the most advanced nodes. On the other hand, we are capable of manufacturing everything else; we just need a bit of time to set things up and ramp up capacity. If we don’t gain that capability now, it will take us too long to recover when push actually comes to shove.

User23 4y ago
I think the USA is just as capable of writing fat checks to ASML as Taiwan is.
- Cyph0n 4y ago
  There’s a bit more to IC fabrication than lithography. Regardless, I’d go further and argue that we should be building up the capability to manufacture our own EUV lithography machines.
  - User23 4y ago
    The USA developed the technology, holds the patents, and licensed them to ASML. They basically are our machines. That’s why Trump was able to block the China deal.
    - Cyph0n 4y ago
      Uh.. what? Can you share a link? As far as I am aware, it’s the exact opposite: over the years, ASML licensed some of their patents to US companies.
      - User23 4y ago
        It’s surprisingly hard to craft a search query to get a nice link. Nevertheless, here[1] you can find a somewhat oblique reference. [1] https://asiatimes.com/2022/07/how-china-could-leapfrog-us-chip-making-bans/ https://asiatimes.com/2022/07/how-china-could-leapfrog-us-ch...
        Cyph0n 4y ago
        Ah, I think that’s referring to some of the suppliers (and IP) ASML uses to build its machines, not the EUV tech itself. If you think about it, ASML wouldn’t be this critical to semiconductor fabrication if it didn’t control the patents for its core tech.
ac29 4y ago
> we don’t even have the capability to fabricate at the most advanced nodes. I'm not sure that's entirely true. If we define "most advanced nodes" as 5nm-class fabrication, certainly Intel is doing that well now, just not in volume production. Intel 4 based Meteor Lake powered on and runs Windows as of earlier this year. No capability to build and not ready for volume manufacturing aren't really the same class of problem.
- Cyph0n 4y ago
  So Intel is 2 years behind volume production of 5nm by TSMC and Samsung. To me, that sounds like a significant delay in capability. Anyways, I think the CHIPS Act was the right move at the right time. SMIC is quickly catching up thanks to near unlimited funding from the Chinese government. We need to play the same game if we ever want to catch up to TSMC.

dragontamer 4y ago

> We already buy everything from China. Pretty much everything you own in your home is made in China already, including the computer you're using to browse HN and the router you use to connect to internet. If China and the US severe relationships, the world will go into a depression anyways. Not as bad as if Taiwan's exports to the USA are stopped. We can build motherboards / pick-and-place machines in the USA. We literally cannot make the chips that are coming out of Taiwan right now. Samsung is the #2 IIRC, so maybe South Korea can pick up the slack in a hypothetical Taiwan-conflict. > Intel CEO Pat most certainly finessed the government into giving Intel a huge payout by exaggerating this threat. US Government is also got TSMC (Taiwan's semiconductor fabs) to build an Arizona fab-lab. Look, even Taiwan is scared of possible conflict and is hedging on the physical safety of the USA. Hopefully conflict doesn't happen, but the powers that be are making smart moves here. Hopefully it will be enough.

Throwawayaerlei 4y ago
"US Government is also got TSMC (Taiwan's semiconductor fabs) to build an Arizona fab-lab. Look, even Taiwan is scared of possible conflict and is hedging on the physical safety of the USA." I don't think that's the case, as I understand it this comes from the US wanting to onshore some of TSMC's capabilities and Taiwan screwing up electricity production on the island. It does Taiwan the government and ruling class no good whatsoever to place assets beyond the PRC's military reach, rather the incentives are entirely opposite of that. The more valuable TSMC's fab lines there are, the more incentive the US has to help with the ROC's defense, or war if it comes to that. Which in the case of torpedoes from attack subs can even be done with some plausible deniability.
- dragontamer 4y ago
  https://www.tomshardware.com/news/tsmcs-arizona-fab-construction-emerges-at-breakneck-speed https://www.tomshardware.com/news/tsmcs-arizona-fab-construc... The TSMC factory in Arizona is full speed ahead. Its literally in Arizona right now, undergoing construction / hiring / spinning up.
patentatt 4y ago