7 ms·

Am I reading this correctly? Intel, who hasn’t shipped anything using EUVL, plans to be two years ahead of TSMC, within two years. How is that realistic?

senttoschool 4y ago
They are trying to buy their way into a lead. We don't know how good Intel 18A is yet. It could be equivalent or only slightly better than TSMC's N3E or further enhancements of TSMC 3N. Keep in mind that the base TSMC N3 node is scheduled for volume production in Q4 2022. So the TSMC is still likely quite ahead. This is all assuming that everything goes well for Intel. If 18A is simply better than TSMC N3E, then TSMC won't have anything to compete until 2025 - 2026 when they release N2. For TSMC, they have real paying customers that need to plan years ahead so all their date estimates are very conservative. For Intel, they're desperately trying to catch up so they're much more aggressive in their estimates. According to Anandtech, TSMC's N2 could come in 2025 if things go well, which is roughly the same as 18A. So basically, if things go PERFECTLY for Intel, they'd be in the lead for a few quarters - not 2 years like you said.
oblak 4y ago
It can happen as these things are mostly about money. They stopped aggressive investing in certain areas to save money and had a lot of stellar quarters in succession. Even TSMC expects Intel to get back on track in a few years because, again, they started investing again. Please note Intel is about to get huge subsidies from the US (~50b) and EU (~20b) real soon. It's free money for their precious fabs and R&D. I am very much against the EU giving them anything but a kick in the nuts but oh well, gotta keep the US and Israel happy
- senttoschool 4y ago
  Intel is going to use that money to spend on buybacks and dividends. I'm 100% against tax payer funded chip fabs. It's just a handout to huge corporations. Already happening: https://semianalysis.substack.com/p/intel-cuts-fab-buildout-by-4b-to https://semianalysis.substack.com/p/intel-cuts-fab-buildout-... Also, look for huge executive bonuses in the near future.
  - koheripbal 4y ago
    This is a silly cynical outlook. The gov't is specifically paying for new fabs that are already being built. Not to mention this is a national security issue given the possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
    - senttoschool 4y ago
      We already buy everything from China. Pretty much everything you own in your home is made in China already, including the computer you're using to browse HN and the router you use to connect to internet. If China and the US severe relationships, the world will go into a depression anyways. Intel CEO Pat most certainly finessed the government into giving Intel a huge payout by exaggerating this threat.
      - Cyph0n 4y ago
        There is a crucial difference between IC fabrication and almost everything else: we don’t even have the capability to fabricate at the most advanced nodes. On the other hand, we are capable of manufacturing everything else; we just need a bit of time to set things up and ramp up capacity. If we don’t gain that capability now, it will take us too long to recover when push actually comes to shove.
        User23 4y ago
        I think the USA is just as capable of writing fat checks to ASML as Taiwan is.
        Cyph0n 4y ago
        There’s a bit more to IC fabrication than lithography. Regardless, I’d go further and argue that we should be building up the capability to manufacture our own EUV lithography machines.
        4y ago
- jjtheblunt 4y ago
  > gotta keep the US and Israel happy why? isn't it in the interest of the EU to not be dependent on China for chips, if they take over Taiwan to corner that market?
throw0101a 4y ago
> Intel, who hasn’t shipped anything using EUVL, plans to be two years ahead of TSMC, within two years. Intel will be the first customer of ASML's post/next-gen EUVL systems: * https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2022/intel-and-asml-strengthen-their-collaboration-to-drive-high-na-into-manufacturing-in-2025 https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2022/intel-and-a... * https://seekingalpha.com/article/4496925-asml-fuelling-intels-dream-as-leading-foundry https://seekingalpha.com/article/4496925-asml-fuelling-intel...
- fvv 4y ago
  And after two months more high na will be sent to tsmc , one machine is just a testing machine , for production many are needed this is just a pr stunt
n7pdx 4y ago
It isn’t. TSMC has multiple customers lined up with the volume required to ramp these processes to high volume, Intel only has their own designs and whatever foundry customers willing to be an Intel guinea pig. TSMC also has extensive experience with these machines compared to Intel. Pat is just making shit up and hoping their stock price doesn’t crater even more.
fvv 4y ago
Also depend on the definition of available.. is it hvm ? Fist client ? Which yield / profitability? Which libraries?
isthatafact 4y ago
It seems appropriate to point out that the article is 4 months old, which makes me wonder why it was posted now. I would be curious to read the article again in 2025.

senttoschool 4y ago

They are trying to buy their way into a lead. We don't know how good Intel 18A is yet. It could be equivalent or only slightly better than TSMC's N3E or further enhancements of TSMC 3N. Keep in mind that the base TSMC N3 node is scheduled for volume production in Q4 2022. So the TSMC is still likely quite ahead. This is all assuming that everything goes well for Intel. If 18A is simply better than TSMC N3E, then TSMC won't have anything to compete until 2025 - 2026 when they release N2. For TSMC, they have real paying customers that need to plan years ahead so all their date estimates are very conservative. For Intel, they're desperately trying to catch up so they're much more aggressive in their estimates. According to Anandtech, TSMC's N2 could come in 2025 if things go well, which is roughly the same as 18A. So basically, if things go PERFECTLY for Intel, they'd be in the lead for a few quarters - not 2 years like you said.

oblak 4y ago

It can happen as these things are mostly about money. They stopped aggressive investing in certain areas to save money and had a lot of stellar quarters in succession. Even TSMC expects Intel to get back on track in a few years because, again, they started investing again. Please note Intel is about to get huge subsidies from the US (~50b) and EU (~20b) real soon. It's free money for their precious fabs and R&D. I am very much against the EU giving them anything but a kick in the nuts but oh well, gotta keep the US and Israel happy

senttoschool 4y ago
Intel is going to use that money to spend on buybacks and dividends. I'm 100% against tax payer funded chip fabs. It's just a handout to huge corporations. Already happening: https://semianalysis.substack.com/p/intel-cuts-fab-buildout-by-4b-to https://semianalysis.substack.com/p/intel-cuts-fab-buildout-... Also, look for huge executive bonuses in the near future.
- koheripbal 4y ago
  This is a silly cynical outlook. The gov't is specifically paying for new fabs that are already being built. Not to mention this is a national security issue given the possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
  - senttoschool 4y ago
    We already buy everything from China. Pretty much everything you own in your home is made in China already, including the computer you're using to browse HN and the router you use to connect to internet. If China and the US severe relationships, the world will go into a depression anyways. Intel CEO Pat most certainly finessed the government into giving Intel a huge payout by exaggerating this threat.
    - Cyph0n 4y ago
      There is a crucial difference between IC fabrication and almost everything else: we don’t even have the capability to fabricate at the most advanced nodes. On the other hand, we are capable of manufacturing everything else; we just need a bit of time to set things up and ramp up capacity. If we don’t gain that capability now, it will take us too long to recover when push actually comes to shove.
      - User23 4y ago
        I think the USA is just as capable of writing fat checks to ASML as Taiwan is.
        Cyph0n 4y ago
        There’s a bit more to IC fabrication than lithography. Regardless, I’d go further and argue that we should be building up the capability to manufacture our own EUV lithography machines.
        4y ago
jjtheblunt 4y ago
> gotta keep the US and Israel happy why? isn't it in the interest of the EU to not be dependent on China for chips, if they take over Taiwan to corner that market?

throw0101a 4y ago

> Intel, who hasn’t shipped anything using EUVL, plans to be two years ahead of TSMC, within two years. Intel will be the first customer of ASML's post/next-gen EUVL systems: * https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2022/intel-and-asml-strengthen-their-collaboration-to-drive-high-na-into-manufacturing-in-2025 https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2022/intel-and-a... * https://seekingalpha.com/article/4496925-asml-fuelling-intels-dream-as-leading-foundry https://seekingalpha.com/article/4496925-asml-fuelling-intel...

fvv 4y ago
And after two months more high na will be sent to tsmc , one machine is just a testing machine , for production many are needed this is just a pr stunt

n7pdx 4y ago

It isn’t. TSMC has multiple customers lined up with the volume required to ramp these processes to high volume, Intel only has their own designs and whatever foundry customers willing to be an Intel guinea pig. TSMC also has extensive experience with these machines compared to Intel. Pat is just making shit up and hoping their stock price doesn’t crater even more.

fvv 4y ago

Also depend on the definition of available.. is it hvm ? Fist client ? Which yield / profitability? Which libraries?

isthatafact 4y ago

It seems appropriate to point out that the article is 4 months old, which makes me wonder why it was posted now. I would be curious to read the article again in 2025.