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I remember reading somewhere that Taiwan has rigged all the TSMC fabs to explode and flood in case China invades it. The fabs however are less important than th

I remember reading somewhere that Taiwan has rigged all the TSMC fabs to explode and flood in case China invades it. The fabs however are less important than the innovation and technical knowledge to run it and is stored elsewhere and also with the human resource. These can be quickly transported to ensure they can setup elsewhere and prevent the tech from falling into China's hand.

CamperBob2 4y ago
The machines may be rigged to explode, flood, or otherwise hose themselves, but active sabotage is largely unnecessary. If China takes Taiwan by force, two things will happen: 1) the US will heavily sanction anyone who trades with them, so even if they manage to keep the TSMC fab online it won't do them any good in a commercial sense; and 2) without ongoing service and support from ASML and many other Western vendors, the equipment will work for about as long as the leased aircraft that Russia stole from Airbus's and Boeing's customers. They might get six or twelve months of production out of TSMC's facility, and then things will start to break that they will not be able to fix easily. Invading Taiwan will cause economic damage measured in hundreds of billions of dollars at a bare minimum, and much of that damage will be suffered by China. Bottom line, it would be insanely stupid of China to attack Taiwan. Of course, many people (including myself) said the same thing about Putin and Ukraine, so...
- whatever1 4y ago
  Apple produces almost 100% of their processors at TSMC (Samsung was making some previous gen if I recall). If Taiwan falls, Apple falls. The US economy will be in ruins, and nothing can stop a large scale military conflict.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
- dirtyid 4y ago
  >and much of that damage will be suffered by China Signiciantly more will be suffered by US/west whose advanced industries extracts disproportionate patent fees and have extreme reliance on TW semi for short to medium term. We're talking trillions in knock on effects. Proximity of semi production / supply chain concentration in TW and broader east Asia is PRC's trump card in war. During peace US has trump card in sanctions / tech control, but during war PRC has leverage of simply setting the advanced economies back 30 years which will actually close relative gap. PRC might even pull ahead if they manage to mass rollout of 28nm indigenous fabs and complete indigenous semi supply chain before anyone else. That's without mentioning during war, PRC has incentive to attack SKR/JP fabs to draw US into first island chain where they're weakest to honor security commitments. If things ever get heated with US, it would be insanely smart for China to threaten TW/JP/SKR as well. And if PRC attacks TW, I surmise there's going to be three way side deal between PRC, US and TW leadership to maintain TSMC production continuity in exchange for evacuations for TW leadership to US who would otherwise get the noose for treason. Which itself makes the notion that TSMC is rigged to blow counterproductive - surival of TSMC is TW elites golden ticket off the island - US isn't going to look kindly to a TW admin that explodes US economy and tech lead.
  - credit_guy 4y ago
    > Significantly more will be suffered by US/west People can live without smartphones, but can't live without food. In case of war, westerners will need to postpone buying some electronics or clothes, but the Chinese will resort to severe food rationing.
    - Jensson 4y ago
      That is old data, today China produces more than enough to feed its population. They produce 650 million tons of grain a year which is more than enough for their population, and is a net exporter of meat. To make it easier to understand, total world grain production is about 2250 million tons for a population of 7.8 billion. At worst China would need to ration more expensive meals, but people wouldn't starve.
    - dirtyid 4y ago
- newaccount2021 4y ago
- dannyw 4y ago
  The US heavily sanctioning China would basically be the end of America's economy, it isn't a realistic option. There also won't be enough public support for it as long as conflict is contained to the APAC region. Furthermore, it probably also means the disintegration of US global sanctioning power. Europe would rather trade with China than the USA, assuming it's mutually exclusive.
  - NLPlatypus 4y ago
    I’m not so sure about Europe siding with China. Values come into play. https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-07-30/swiss-set-to-match-eu-sanctions-if-china-invades-taiwan-agency-chief?context=amp https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-07-30/swiss-...
    - CamperBob2 4y ago
      Interestingly, the press is starting to float trial balloons along those lines: https://www.reuters.com/article/germany-economy-china/trade-war-with-china-could-cost-germany-six-times-as-much-as-brexit-ifo-idUSL8N2ZK1KI https://www.reuters.com/article/germany-economy-china/trade-...
  - foobarian 4y ago
    Pick any Walmart, Target, or other big box store and see how much of their stock is not Chinese made. Cutting trade would basically shut all of them down and there would be a revolt.
- jason-phillips 4y ago
  > 2) without ongoing service and support from ASML and many other Western vendors, the equipment will work for about as long as the leased aircraft that Russia stole from Airbus's and Boeing's customers. They might get six or twelve months of production out of TSMC's facility, and then things will start to break that they will not be able to fix easily. Right. Fab tools require constant maintenance. I'm sure they keep a stock of repair kits and spare parts, but probably no more than a few months supply. Their supply chain ops (procurement and engineering) sets min/max stock levels of these parts, but I'm willing to bet that there's no more than a few months supply on hand. And then equipment gets dirty, wafers get scrapped, yield plummets, etc.
ak39 4y ago
Serious question: why is the US trying to (or is already preventing) China from acquiring EUV chip tech? What’s the reason for such an aggressive intervention in a free market?
- kube-system 4y ago
  The best military technology needs the best silicon. The US has long placed export controls on technology with military applications.
  - vladvasiliu 4y ago
    So then how come they're right next to China, "an unstable hostile power", and not in the middle of mainland US?
    - Teever 4y ago
      Globalism. The oligarchs in the west decided to outsource key industries to developing countries to increase their profit margins. Now they're scrambling to fix those mistakes.
      - analognoise 4y ago
        Which is why forced birth is making a comeback - the only way to ensure local production now is to ensure you have a permanent underclass you can squeeze for your profits. As globalism unwinds, there will be an open desire to roll back child labor and environmental laws as well as birth choice. We'll get factories back in the USA - and wish we hadn't. Or we'll see a massive expansion in prison labor, even worse than we have now.
        mycall 4y ago
        > Which is why forced birth is making a comeback - the only way to ensure local production now is to ensure you have a permanent underclass you can squeeze for your profits. Correlation not causation.
bschne 4y ago
> These can be quickly transported elsewhere to ensure they can setup elsewhere and prevent the tech from falling into China's hand. Wouldn't it still take quite a long time to get a new fab to the point of being productive? These machines aren't exactly sitting in storage by the hundreds, and I imagine you'd also need to dial in all the processes pretty well to get good yields? (though I have no idea what that entails...)
- jason-phillips 4y ago
  > Wouldn't it still take quite a long time to get a new fab to the point of being productive? Possibly years.
  - to11mtm 4y ago
    I mean... in the nightmare case... I honestly don't know if you can 're-clean' a clean room if it's flooded with the right things. And the right things might just be seawater. (IDK. Not a fab engineer by any stretch.)

CamperBob2 4y ago

The machines may be rigged to explode, flood, or otherwise hose themselves, but active sabotage is largely unnecessary. If China takes Taiwan by force, two things will happen: 1) the US will heavily sanction anyone who trades with them, so even if they manage to keep the TSMC fab online it won't do them any good in a commercial sense; and 2) without ongoing service and support from ASML and many other Western vendors, the equipment will work for about as long as the leased aircraft that Russia stole from Airbus's and Boeing's customers. They might get six or twelve months of production out of TSMC's facility, and then things will start to break that they will not be able to fix easily. Invading Taiwan will cause economic damage measured in hundreds of billions of dollars at a bare minimum, and much of that damage will be suffered by China. Bottom line, it would be insanely stupid of China to attack Taiwan. Of course, many people (including myself) said the same thing about Putin and Ukraine, so...

whatever1 4y ago
Apple produces almost 100% of their processors at TSMC (Samsung was making some previous gen if I recall). If Taiwan falls, Apple falls. The US economy will be in ruins, and nothing can stop a large scale military conflict.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
dirtyid 4y ago
>and much of that damage will be suffered by China Signiciantly more will be suffered by US/west whose advanced industries extracts disproportionate patent fees and have extreme reliance on TW semi for short to medium term. We're talking trillions in knock on effects. Proximity of semi production / supply chain concentration in TW and broader east Asia is PRC's trump card in war. During peace US has trump card in sanctions / tech control, but during war PRC has leverage of simply setting the advanced economies back 30 years which will actually close relative gap. PRC might even pull ahead if they manage to mass rollout of 28nm indigenous fabs and complete indigenous semi supply chain before anyone else. That's without mentioning during war, PRC has incentive to attack SKR/JP fabs to draw US into first island chain where they're weakest to honor security commitments. If things ever get heated with US, it would be insanely smart for China to threaten TW/JP/SKR as well. And if PRC attacks TW, I surmise there's going to be three way side deal between PRC, US and TW leadership to maintain TSMC production continuity in exchange for evacuations for TW leadership to US who would otherwise get the noose for treason. Which itself makes the notion that TSMC is rigged to blow counterproductive - surival of TSMC is TW elites golden ticket off the island - US isn't going to look kindly to a TW admin that explodes US economy and tech lead.
- credit_guy 4y ago
  > Significantly more will be suffered by US/west People can live without smartphones, but can't live without food. In case of war, westerners will need to postpone buying some electronics or clothes, but the Chinese will resort to severe food rationing.
  - Jensson 4y ago
    That is old data, today China produces more than enough to feed its population. They produce 650 million tons of grain a year which is more than enough for their population, and is a net exporter of meat. To make it easier to understand, total world grain production is about 2250 million tons for a population of 7.8 billion. At worst China would need to ration more expensive meals, but people wouldn't starve.
  - dirtyid 4y ago
newaccount2021 4y ago
dannyw 4y ago
The US heavily sanctioning China would basically be the end of America's economy, it isn't a realistic option. There also won't be enough public support for it as long as conflict is contained to the APAC region. Furthermore, it probably also means the disintegration of US global sanctioning power. Europe would rather trade with China than the USA, assuming it's mutually exclusive.
- NLPlatypus 4y ago
  I’m not so sure about Europe siding with China. Values come into play. https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-07-30/swiss-set-to-match-eu-sanctions-if-china-invades-taiwan-agency-chief?context=amp https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-07-30/swiss-...
  - CamperBob2 4y ago
    Interestingly, the press is starting to float trial balloons along those lines: https://www.reuters.com/article/germany-economy-china/trade-war-with-china-could-cost-germany-six-times-as-much-as-brexit-ifo-idUSL8N2ZK1KI https://www.reuters.com/article/germany-economy-china/trade-...
- foobarian 4y ago
  Pick any Walmart, Target, or other big box store and see how much of their stock is not Chinese made. Cutting trade would basically shut all of them down and there would be a revolt.
jason-phillips 4y ago
> 2) without ongoing service and support from ASML and many other Western vendors, the equipment will work for about as long as the leased aircraft that Russia stole from Airbus's and Boeing's customers. They might get six or twelve months of production out of TSMC's facility, and then things will start to break that they will not be able to fix easily. Right. Fab tools require constant maintenance. I'm sure they keep a stock of repair kits and spare parts, but probably no more than a few months supply. Their supply chain ops (procurement and engineering) sets min/max stock levels of these parts, but I'm willing to bet that there's no more than a few months supply on hand. And then equipment gets dirty, wafers get scrapped, yield plummets, etc.

ak39 4y ago

Serious question: why is the US trying to (or is already preventing) China from acquiring EUV chip tech? What’s the reason for such an aggressive intervention in a free market?

kube-system 4y ago
The best military technology needs the best silicon. The US has long placed export controls on technology with military applications.
- vladvasiliu 4y ago
  So then how come they're right next to China, "an unstable hostile power", and not in the middle of mainland US?
  - Teever 4y ago
    Globalism. The oligarchs in the west decided to outsource key industries to developing countries to increase their profit margins. Now they're scrambling to fix those mistakes.
    - analognoise 4y ago
      Which is why forced birth is making a comeback - the only way to ensure local production now is to ensure you have a permanent underclass you can squeeze for your profits. As globalism unwinds, there will be an open desire to roll back child labor and environmental laws as well as birth choice. We'll get factories back in the USA - and wish we hadn't. Or we'll see a massive expansion in prison labor, even worse than we have now.
      - mycall 4y ago
        > Which is why forced birth is making a comeback - the only way to ensure local production now is to ensure you have a permanent underclass you can squeeze for your profits. Correlation not causation.

bschne 4y ago

> These can be quickly transported elsewhere to ensure they can setup elsewhere and prevent the tech from falling into China's hand. Wouldn't it still take quite a long time to get a new fab to the point of being productive? These machines aren't exactly sitting in storage by the hundreds, and I imagine you'd also need to dial in all the processes pretty well to get good yields? (though I have no idea what that entails...)

jason-phillips 4y ago
> Wouldn't it still take quite a long time to get a new fab to the point of being productive? Possibly years.
- to11mtm 4y ago
  I mean... in the nightmare case... I honestly don't know if you can 're-clean' a clean room if it's flooded with the right things. And the right things might just be seawater. (IDK. Not a fab engineer by any stretch.)