4 ms·

There is probably some folk theorem about this. The emergent structure of a society is always more complex than the analytical tools available in that society

There is probably some folk theorem about this. The emergent structure of a society is always more complex than the analytical tools available in that society are capable of modeling. As the tools become more sophisticated, the same technologies and institutions that enabled their development results in a correlated increase in complexity in the social structures. Forever keeping true contemporary introspection out of reach. The best sci-fi counterexample is probably Seldon's Psychohistory from The Foundation Trilogy. A thought experiment related to this: how dominant would the average macro hedge fund from 2022 be if they were transported back to 1985, with no knowledge of specific future events but with all of their scientific knowledge, models (and maybe computing power?) etc.

walterbell 4y ago
> more complex than the analytical tools available in that society are capable of modeling One would need to include non-public analytical tools, which are unfortunately not available for inspection. There are different economic incentives for public and private tools of analysis and thought. One modern equivalent would be export-controlled tools and technology, but there are many more onion layers.
svnt 4y ago
I don’t disagree with the emergence/complexity progression statement but the issue is more fundamental: you cannot accurately model a system within that system. The thought experiment doesn’t work because the hedge fund would need to be transported back with networking and information access they can’t get in 1985. They would show up, try to get onto the trading floor, be rejected, have to get re-trained, have to hire an army of data entry folks, and they would still get beat by the good old boys network and insider trading that wasn’t yet being identified and prosecuted. That’s all if they weren’t just investigated and arrested for cheating while their computers worked through their planned obsolescence timeline in some closet.

walterbell 4y ago

> more complex than the analytical tools available in that society are capable of modeling One would need to include non-public analytical tools, which are unfortunately not available for inspection. There are different economic incentives for public and private tools of analysis and thought. One modern equivalent would be export-controlled tools and technology, but there are many more onion layers.

svnt 4y ago

I don’t disagree with the emergence/complexity progression statement but the issue is more fundamental: you cannot accurately model a system within that system. The thought experiment doesn’t work because the hedge fund would need to be transported back with networking and information access they can’t get in 1985. They would show up, try to get onto the trading floor, be rejected, have to get re-trained, have to hire an army of data entry folks, and they would still get beat by the good old boys network and insider trading that wasn’t yet being identified and prosecuted. That’s all if they weren’t just investigated and arrested for cheating while their computers worked through their planned obsolescence timeline in some closet.