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O, that seems pretty odd. I can't think of any reason for them to do that beyond trying to get out of the deal or incredible negligence on the musk side in not

O, that seems pretty odd. I can't think of any reason for them to do that beyond trying to get out of the deal or incredible negligence on the musk side in not doing that before hand. Were they able to get that data before hand if they wanted it?

glenngillen 4y ago
It doesn’t really matter at this point, because he signed a binding agreement. He’s the one that made that move. Specifically why is just speculation now. But, hey, we’re all here speculating anyway! My take is: 1) He’s a history of making impulsive decisions without thinking (or caring) about the consequences. 2) It forced Twitter’s hand because they couldn’t act like it was it a non-genuine offer. 3) He’s so rarely held accountable for the consequences of his decisions he knew it didn’t matter because he’s above the law.
- kukx 4y ago
  You have to make a series of countless good or great decisions to be that successful. His ratio of good decisions to bad ones is probably one of the best in the world. He is not above the law, he has to stand before court as every normal citizen has.
  - glenngillen 4y ago
    Or, counter-point: https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1534172773580513280?s=20&t=JytGPEaP9C6WWLfEJqSKMA https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1534172773580513280?s=20&...
  - tikiman163 4y ago
    If you think his ratio of good to bad business decisions is even average then you haven't been paying attention. Tesla has nearly gone bankrupt repeatedly, and it's stock price has largely risen the most after Musk was removed from controlling the company as a result of a series of tweets that were considered illegal attempts at manipulating the stock market. In point of fact, Musk still controls SpaceX and internal memos leaked earlier this year indicate that SpaceX could very well go Bankrupt within the next 18 months. The Boring Company is generally solvent and under Musk's full control, but it is far smaller, and could be in danger of law suits for effectively failing to meet contractual obligations regarding the tunnel the agreed to provide Las Vegas. The Boring Company's future doesn't look great to me, their results don't meet public expectations which could easily lead to funding drying up. Also, anybody who thinks accusing a rescue diver of pedophilia purely because he told them not to interfere with rescue efforts is pretty far from being a genius. Musk has been lucky his whole life, people just rarely see his failures. Basically, his press is full of shit. The claim that he learned to program and wrote a video game at age 10 is quite ridiculous. Seriously, there are online websites where you can play his "game". It's Space Invaders, except theirs only one alien, you can't have multiple projectiles on the screen at the same time, the alien doesn't fire at you unless they get extremely close, if the alien fires at you it locks your controls making it virtually impossible to dodge and prevents you from firing back, and when you successfully hit the alien it immediately respawns at a random location which may be in range of you, resulting in you immediately dying. My own nephew programmed significantly more impressive games at age 10, will people start following him and assume he's never made any mistakes if someone who owns an emerald mine gives him hundreds of millions of dollars to invest into new technologies and the businesses don't ultimately fail?
    - bathtub365 4y ago
      I’m not an Elon Musk fan but it was 1981 when he was 10. There were far fewer resources for learning to program and make games in 1981 than there are today. Not to take away from what your nephew did, but there are currently hundreds of “how to make a game” tutorials available online in a variety of instantly consumable formats. There are even entire development environments focused on simplifying game development with low code workflows. In 1981 there wasn't even the concept of a widely accessible public Internet.
    - Shaanie 4y ago
      Is your nephew close to Musk's age? Programming a simple game in 1980 is much more impressive to me than doing the same in the 2010s.
    - kukx 4y ago
      You are basically making a claim that he is a bad businessman without mentioning that he is one of the richest people in the world. Why should anyone take your arguments seriously?
      - nocoiner 4y ago
        He signed a binding acquisition agreement in a $44 billion dollar deal without doing any due diligence. Bigger deals have been struck on similar timeframes, but rarely has the purchaser evidenced such obvious buyer’s remorse so quickly afterward, or embarked on the venture with as little thought as he put toward it. That’s a pretty weighty fact on the scale of “Musk - canny businessperson, or remarkable streak of being in the right place at the right time.”
        kukx 4y ago
        So you suggest he is a bad businessman and his success is only attributable to luck. To understand how ridiculous this claim is you first need to realize that there are infinite ways to fail and very very little ways to succeed. Good and bad decisions are not symmetric, it is not 50:50, it is more like infinite:1. But even if it was 50:50, for the thought experiment sake, if you make random decisions you quickly make a bad one, and to be successful you need to make way, way more good decisions than bad ones. Sure luck is obviously always a factor, but thinking that he created a car that he later sent to space on his own rocket is not a sign of extraordinary competence, well, to me you can as well claim that the Earth is flat.
tikiman163 4y ago
Yes, Musk could have received that data and had time to analyze it before buying, these kind of merger contract processes have time built into them to allow prospective buyers to look into finances and other information that is not normally publicly available. Musk was so certain he wanted this that he signed additional documents waiving his right to a due diligence period, allowing him to immediately sign the merger agreement. This next bit is mainly speculation, but the reason Musk is actually trying to back out is partly to do with the fact that signing the merger contract caused his other companies stock prices to drop and public speculation that his existing business would suffer if he needed to focus on running Twitter. The second and more widely believed version of events is that partly due in fact to his other stock prices dropping, Musk cannot afford Twitter without having to sell more of Tesla and SpaceX than he is willing to. Musk is already down to owning only 17% of Tesla and less than 50% of SpaceX, although that's complicated as some percentage of Tesla is owned by SpaceX and vice versa along with the Boring company in such a way that Musk effectively has majority control over SpaceX whenever he wants. If he has to sell additional stock to cover the purchase of Twitter he would very likely lose the ability to control everything except possibly the Boring Company. What's more, the contract he signed effectively puts him in a position of buying Twitter at a substantial loss as the stock market has significantly fallen since Musk signed the deal. He would effectively be losing significant control of his two primary sources of wealth in exchange for something he has likely since discovered he cannot run the way he wants. In short, this was a bad move financially when Musk first announced his intentions, it was extremely foolish of him to waive due diligence, and it became financially even worse shortly after he signed the deal, partly due to the facts that people lost trust in him for waiving due diligence while making a financially inadvisable move, partly due to the fact that he's actually pretty bad at math and doesn't understand the stock market, and partly because the stock market took a nose dive right after he foolishly waived due diligence and signed such a financially ruinous deal. If you're thinking Musk is smarter than I'm making him out to be, please consider that Musk tried to insert himself into a cave rescue he had nothing to do with, was told not to interfere with the professionals that know what they're doing, and retaliated to being told to butt out by publicly accusing the rescue team lead of being a pedophile despite knowing nothing about the man. Trying to offer to help without really understanding the situation isn't necessarily a bad thing, but randomly accusing someone of being a pedophile because they were critical of you is so far beyond acceptable behavior it's amazing Musk wasn't banned from Twitter as a result (it was where he made the accusation publicly). That level of harassment violates Twitter's ToS, plain and simple.

glenngillen 4y ago

It doesn’t really matter at this point, because he signed a binding agreement. He’s the one that made that move. Specifically why is just speculation now. But, hey, we’re all here speculating anyway! My take is: 1) He’s a history of making impulsive decisions without thinking (or caring) about the consequences. 2) It forced Twitter’s hand because they couldn’t act like it was it a non-genuine offer. 3) He’s so rarely held accountable for the consequences of his decisions he knew it didn’t matter because he’s above the law.

kukx 4y ago
You have to make a series of countless good or great decisions to be that successful. His ratio of good decisions to bad ones is probably one of the best in the world. He is not above the law, he has to stand before court as every normal citizen has.
- glenngillen 4y ago
  Or, counter-point: https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1534172773580513280?s=20&t=JytGPEaP9C6WWLfEJqSKMA https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1534172773580513280?s=20&...
- tikiman163 4y ago
  If you think his ratio of good to bad business decisions is even average then you haven't been paying attention. Tesla has nearly gone bankrupt repeatedly, and it's stock price has largely risen the most after Musk was removed from controlling the company as a result of a series of tweets that were considered illegal attempts at manipulating the stock market. In point of fact, Musk still controls SpaceX and internal memos leaked earlier this year indicate that SpaceX could very well go Bankrupt within the next 18 months. The Boring Company is generally solvent and under Musk's full control, but it is far smaller, and could be in danger of law suits for effectively failing to meet contractual obligations regarding the tunnel the agreed to provide Las Vegas. The Boring Company's future doesn't look great to me, their results don't meet public expectations which could easily lead to funding drying up. Also, anybody who thinks accusing a rescue diver of pedophilia purely because he told them not to interfere with rescue efforts is pretty far from being a genius. Musk has been lucky his whole life, people just rarely see his failures. Basically, his press is full of shit. The claim that he learned to program and wrote a video game at age 10 is quite ridiculous. Seriously, there are online websites where you can play his "game". It's Space Invaders, except theirs only one alien, you can't have multiple projectiles on the screen at the same time, the alien doesn't fire at you unless they get extremely close, if the alien fires at you it locks your controls making it virtually impossible to dodge and prevents you from firing back, and when you successfully hit the alien it immediately respawns at a random location which may be in range of you, resulting in you immediately dying. My own nephew programmed significantly more impressive games at age 10, will people start following him and assume he's never made any mistakes if someone who owns an emerald mine gives him hundreds of millions of dollars to invest into new technologies and the businesses don't ultimately fail?
  - bathtub365 4y ago
    I’m not an Elon Musk fan but it was 1981 when he was 10. There were far fewer resources for learning to program and make games in 1981 than there are today. Not to take away from what your nephew did, but there are currently hundreds of “how to make a game” tutorials available online in a variety of instantly consumable formats. There are even entire development environments focused on simplifying game development with low code workflows. In 1981 there wasn't even the concept of a widely accessible public Internet.
  - Shaanie 4y ago
    Is your nephew close to Musk's age? Programming a simple game in 1980 is much more impressive to me than doing the same in the 2010s.
  - kukx 4y ago
    You are basically making a claim that he is a bad businessman without mentioning that he is one of the richest people in the world. Why should anyone take your arguments seriously?
    - nocoiner 4y ago
      He signed a binding acquisition agreement in a $44 billion dollar deal without doing any due diligence. Bigger deals have been struck on similar timeframes, but rarely has the purchaser evidenced such obvious buyer’s remorse so quickly afterward, or embarked on the venture with as little thought as he put toward it. That’s a pretty weighty fact on the scale of “Musk - canny businessperson, or remarkable streak of being in the right place at the right time.”
      - kukx 4y ago
        So you suggest he is a bad businessman and his success is only attributable to luck. To understand how ridiculous this claim is you first need to realize that there are infinite ways to fail and very very little ways to succeed. Good and bad decisions are not symmetric, it is not 50:50, it is more like infinite:1. But even if it was 50:50, for the thought experiment sake, if you make random decisions you quickly make a bad one, and to be successful you need to make way, way more good decisions than bad ones. Sure luck is obviously always a factor, but thinking that he created a car that he later sent to space on his own rocket is not a sign of extraordinary competence, well, to me you can as well claim that the Earth is flat.

tikiman163 4y ago

Yes, Musk could have received that data and had time to analyze it before buying, these kind of merger contract processes have time built into them to allow prospective buyers to look into finances and other information that is not normally publicly available. Musk was so certain he wanted this that he signed additional documents waiving his right to a due diligence period, allowing him to immediately sign the merger agreement. This next bit is mainly speculation, but the reason Musk is actually trying to back out is partly to do with the fact that signing the merger contract caused his other companies stock prices to drop and public speculation that his existing business would suffer if he needed to focus on running Twitter. The second and more widely believed version of events is that partly due in fact to his other stock prices dropping, Musk cannot afford Twitter without having to sell more of Tesla and SpaceX than he is willing to. Musk is already down to owning only 17% of Tesla and less than 50% of SpaceX, although that's complicated as some percentage of Tesla is owned by SpaceX and vice versa along with the Boring company in such a way that Musk effectively has majority control over SpaceX whenever he wants. If he has to sell additional stock to cover the purchase of Twitter he would very likely lose the ability to control everything except possibly the Boring Company. What's more, the contract he signed effectively puts him in a position of buying Twitter at a substantial loss as the stock market has significantly fallen since Musk signed the deal. He would effectively be losing significant control of his two primary sources of wealth in exchange for something he has likely since discovered he cannot run the way he wants. In short, this was a bad move financially when Musk first announced his intentions, it was extremely foolish of him to waive due diligence, and it became financially even worse shortly after he signed the deal, partly due to the facts that people lost trust in him for waiving due diligence while making a financially inadvisable move, partly due to the fact that he's actually pretty bad at math and doesn't understand the stock market, and partly because the stock market took a nose dive right after he foolishly waived due diligence and signed such a financially ruinous deal. If you're thinking Musk is smarter than I'm making him out to be, please consider that Musk tried to insert himself into a cave rescue he had nothing to do with, was told not to interfere with the professionals that know what they're doing, and retaliated to being told to butt out by publicly accusing the rescue team lead of being a pedophile despite knowing nothing about the man. Trying to offer to help without really understanding the situation isn't necessarily a bad thing, but randomly accusing someone of being a pedophile because they were critical of you is so far beyond acceptable behavior it's amazing Musk wasn't banned from Twitter as a result (it was where he made the accusation publicly). That level of harassment violates Twitter's ToS, plain and simple.