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The average age of a car on the road today in America is 12 years. According to Hedges & Company, only ~10% of all cars on the road today are 20 years or older[

The average age of a car on the road today in America is 12 years. According to Hedges & Company, only ~10% of all cars on the road today are 20 years or older[0]. That’s not a small number, but “in general”, people do not drive 20 year old cars. The minimum battery warranty for an EV in the US is 8 years or 100k miles[1], and crowdsourced reports of battery degradation over time suggest that (at least for Tesla vehicles) it is not a major issue; range loss averages out to around 11% at 200k miles[2], which is the expected EOL for most ICE vehicles[3]. There are anecdotal reports of high-mileage EVs running on the same battery for over 350k miles[4] and 620k miles[5] without issue. [0] https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2022/02/how-old-are-cars/ https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2022/02/how-old-are-cars/ [1] https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/evaluating-electric-vehicle-warranties https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/evaluati... [2] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1c3m9wqlxPBo8ziDYVm5cHRzNCHZbtI_2vVhlXksX9Jc/edit#gid=826479810 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1c3m9wqlxPBo8ziDYVm5c... [3] https://www.caranddriver.com/research/a32758625/how-many-miles-does-a-car-last/ https://www.caranddriver.com/research/a32758625/how-many-mil... [4] https://insideevs.com/news/342457/this-tesla-model-x-90d-covered-350000-miles-on-original-battery/ https://insideevs.com/news/342457/this-tesla-model-x-90d-cov... [5] https://jalopnik.com/one-tesla-model-s-has-gone-nearly-1-million-miles-and-n-1848362945 https://jalopnik.com/one-tesla-model-s-has-gone-nearly-1-mil...

antisthenes 4y ago
While I agree that batteries are getting better and cheaper, there are several issues with your sources. 1. There are only 9 data points for only 1 brand of EVs on that sheet. This is essentially anecdotal data. There are 10 data points (just as many) of batteries under 80% of capacity with varying mileages. What happened with those? As a consumer, I don't want to get bad luck of the draw and be one of those. 2. The 1 million mile Tesla is on its 3rd battery pack. It's not a valid observation. At best we can surmise that a battery pack can last roughly ~333,333 miles under good conditions. But this is still a premium vehicle (P85) that is out of reach of most consumers with a large battery pack. What would the numbers be for a Nissan 45 kWh pack for example? If it's roughly half of 333k, then it's not as impressive anymore. Maybe 1/3 of that? The biggest issue though is that EVs still carry a substantial premium above ICE vehicles, which can only be realized in savings over a long period of high gasoline prices ($5+).

antisthenes 4y ago

While I agree that batteries are getting better and cheaper, there are several issues with your sources. 1. There are only 9 data points for only 1 brand of EVs on that sheet. This is essentially anecdotal data. There are 10 data points (just as many) of batteries under 80% of capacity with varying mileages. What happened with those? As a consumer, I don't want to get bad luck of the draw and be one of those. 2. The 1 million mile Tesla is on its 3rd battery pack. It's not a valid observation. At best we can surmise that a battery pack can last roughly ~333,333 miles under good conditions. But this is still a premium vehicle (P85) that is out of reach of most consumers with a large battery pack. What would the numbers be for a Nissan 45 kWh pack for example? If it's roughly half of 333k, then it's not as impressive anymore. Maybe 1/3 of that? The biggest issue though is that EVs still carry a substantial premium above ICE vehicles, which can only be realized in savings over a long period of high gasoline prices ($5+).