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Would their be any benefit to Musk going through this ordeal meanwhile fully intending to buy Twitter all along?

by usgroup 4y ago

Ekaros 4y ago
I suppose he could save some billions.
- usgroup 4y ago
  It seems to me that any reduction in price would also cause a reduction in value, no? I.e pay less because it’s worth less?
  - Ekaros 4y ago
    Yes, but if he is taking it private that doesn't change anything. I have no idea what is his plan to make money with Twitter, but that is why I'm not multi-billionaire.
pinko 4y ago
Yes, he could end up negotiating a lower price. Even a tiny discount might make it all worthwhile.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- ncallaway 4y ago
  It will be hard to negotiate a lower price while a lawsuit about specific performance is still open. Since Twitter has a real (not guaranteed, but not terribly unlikely) of having a court force Musk to buy Twitter at the original price, I don’t think they’d seriously consider selling at a massive discount. I could see a small haircut to the price in a settlement, so maybe that’s the angle. But… with the threat of specific performance looming, I just don’t see Twitter moving the needle on their price much.
  - kshacker 4y ago
    Real chance does not mean 100% chance. As long as there is a threat (and fear) of losing, negotiations can happen.
    - ncallaway 4y ago
      Oh, I wouldn’t say specific performance is close to 100%. I have no real basis for this, but if I had to put a number on it I’d say it’s a 40% chance (if you let me put a range I’d say between 20-80%, so I don’t have really any confidence in my guess). But if they don’t get specific performance (which gets them a good sale price, but loses them Twitter), they are very likely to get damages (maybe capped at $1B, maybe not capped at that), which gets them a decent amount of liquid assets while they don’t lose Twitter. So, I agree, there’s room to negotiate in the uncertainty of the ruling but not getting specific performance doesn’t really mean Twitter loses. The alternative to specific performance could still be a big cash payout with no loss of assets. So, I think the fear of losing for Twitter is very small. And specific performance is I think a bigger threat towards Musk than its a desirable outcome for Twitter.
h2odragon 4y ago
I think it may be: "Don't throw me in that briar patch." The more vocal Twitter users were quite dismayed by the prospect of Musk owning their favorite forum. There was talk of getting the Government to block a deal somehow because "one person can't be allowed to own the public square." Now they're as likely to be overjoyed if a court "forces" him to conclude the deal, even with a slightly smaller price than originally advertised. Whatever principles were served by the initial objection are less important than Dunking on Elon now that he's become pariah.

Would their be any benefit to Musk going through this ordeal meanwhile fully intending to buy Twitter all along?

Ekaros 4y ago

I suppose he could save some billions.

usgroup 4y ago
It seems to me that any reduction in price would also cause a reduction in value, no? I.e pay less because it’s worth less?
- Ekaros 4y ago
  Yes, but if he is taking it private that doesn't change anything. I have no idea what is his plan to make money with Twitter, but that is why I'm not multi-billionaire.

pinko 4y ago

Yes, he could end up negotiating a lower price. Even a tiny discount might make it all worthwhile.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
ncallaway 4y ago
It will be hard to negotiate a lower price while a lawsuit about specific performance is still open. Since Twitter has a real (not guaranteed, but not terribly unlikely) of having a court force Musk to buy Twitter at the original price, I don’t think they’d seriously consider selling at a massive discount. I could see a small haircut to the price in a settlement, so maybe that’s the angle. But… with the threat of specific performance looming, I just don’t see Twitter moving the needle on their price much.
- kshacker 4y ago
  Real chance does not mean 100% chance. As long as there is a threat (and fear) of losing, negotiations can happen.
  - ncallaway 4y ago
    Oh, I wouldn’t say specific performance is close to 100%. I have no real basis for this, but if I had to put a number on it I’d say it’s a 40% chance (if you let me put a range I’d say between 20-80%, so I don’t have really any confidence in my guess). But if they don’t get specific performance (which gets them a good sale price, but loses them Twitter), they are very likely to get damages (maybe capped at $1B, maybe not capped at that), which gets them a decent amount of liquid assets while they don’t lose Twitter. So, I agree, there’s room to negotiate in the uncertainty of the ruling but not getting specific performance doesn’t really mean Twitter loses. The alternative to specific performance could still be a big cash payout with no loss of assets. So, I think the fear of losing for Twitter is very small. And specific performance is I think a bigger threat towards Musk than its a desirable outcome for Twitter.

h2odragon 4y ago

I think it may be: "Don't throw me in that briar patch." The more vocal Twitter users were quite dismayed by the prospect of Musk owning their favorite forum. There was talk of getting the Government to block a deal somehow because "one person can't be allowed to own the public square." Now they're as likely to be overjoyed if a court "forces" him to conclude the deal, even with a slightly smaller price than originally advertised. Whatever principles were served by the initial objection are less important than Dunking on Elon now that he's become pariah.