3 ms·
This is definitely something I have noticed of late. A lot of people are convinced, or at least in their public persona are constantly saying that nothing posit
by oramit 4y ago
This is definitely something I have noticed of late. A lot of people are convinced, or at least in their public persona are constantly saying that nothing positive can happen.
I don't think it's any one thing but here are a few ideas I've come up with:
Politics is a big one that can't be ignored. The numbers about the incredibly high levels of political polarization speak for themselves. People have convinced themselves that nothing good can happen when the other party is in power. Post Trump I think that has gotten even worse and people are now openly wishing ill on the whole country so that their party may benefit in the next election.
Related to politics is that a lot of pundits have become very wedded to their positions. Maybe this is just an economics twitter thing but the amount of obsession over what the FED is doing and the dissection of every report isn't healthy. It's hard enough to change your mind (and your trading positions) when things go against you. It's even harder when you are doing it in public and have taken a public position that the sky is always falling.
Moralizing. This is a hard one to describe but basically a lot of the more hard money, milton friedman, perma-bear types, are obsessed with the bill coming due. We sent out a few thousand dollars in stimulus checks to individuals (true), the debt is historically high (true), and now we deserve to have a recession. We deserve the pain, and not only do we deserve it we should welcome it. There is no free lunch!
Finally, though not the last idea but this is already too long... The current situation in the employment market hurts employers the most. The taco bell right down the street from me has had a sign outside for a year advertising starting wages of $17.50 and they still are drive through only because there are not enough employees. The grocery store right across the street from me has been having "on the spot interview" events for more than a year and it is still notably understaffed. The car washing place down the street has had a sign advertising starting wages of $19 an hour for months now. We have had multiple developer and manager positions at my office open for more than a year, but few bites.
Employers absolutely hate this and they have a huge pull in the media/government. They would love to undermine worker power in any way.
- paulmd 4y ago> Post Trump I think that has gotten even worse and people are now openly wishing ill on the whole country so that their party may benefit in the next election. This has been a thing since Obama was elected. McConnell explicitly stated that the goal was to just block everything and make Obama a one-term president, and that's how they've played policy since then. Even things that would have been completely uncontroversial "routine business" even as recently as the bush years (just a few years prior) suddenly were dragged to a halt. Debt ceiling increases on money that had already been spent by prior bills (again, many passed during the Bush years), for example. It all goes back to Gingrich and the Contract With America, and things have only gotten more polarized in the years since. They've been playing out the same script ever since. It just gets more and more polarized every time they lose an election... because it keeps working.
- dominotw 4y ago> something I have noticed of late. This has been happening for a long time. theory seems to be based on recency bias.