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This is unsurprising. The reality is that the US, China and even much of Taiwan actually or effectively supports the One CHina policy. It would be suicide for
by jmyeet 4y ago
This is unsurprising. The reality is that the US, China and even much of Taiwan actually or effectively supports the One CHina policy.
It would be suicide for China to invade Taiwan. The economic damage this would do to China is immense. China may well collapse. Aside from that, it's not that easy either. China may well have a much larger military but a sea crossing is no easy feat.
Look at Britain. It hasn't been successfully invaded by sea in almost 1000 years (1066 being th elast time). On a clear day you can see the white cliffs of Dover from Calais (~17 miles across the English Channel) yet the might of Nazi Germany could never cross it.
Even though the US has legislation to protect Taiwan, if push came to shove, the US simply wouldn't trigger a direct war between nuclear powers in the sam eway that the US isn't getting directly involved in Ukraine.
And much of Taiwan is happy with the situation as is. Pushing independence is going to seriously rock the boat.
So everyone is happy with the situation of China having an official policy that Taiwan is part of China without anything actually changing including China.
I'm personally not a fan of Western companies being influenced by the CCP dangling the carrot of access to the Chinese market when it's a mirage. China will never allow a Western company to dominate the Chinese market. Yet we have Hollywood, for example, kowtowing to China.
China really took an L (IMHO) over the Pelosi visit. She's not the first House Speaker to visit (Newt Ginrich being the last ~25 years ago). By taking a public position, China really gave the US no choice but to proceed rather than back down. It's just mishandled all the way.
So we'll have symbolic things like "Made in --Taiwan--China" as retaliation.
- Apocryphon 4y agoThe PRC could blockade Taiwan rather than engaging in the enormous task of outright invasion, but you're right, the resulting economic fallout would be immense blowback to them. China's government throughout all this, regardless of Xi's rhetoric, has been engaging in slow and steady, non-disruptive actions. Saber-rattling with military exercises is one thing (there have been multiple Taiwan Strait crises already in past decades), engaging in open war would be hugely disruptive both to the international order and to the international trade that the PRC has built its rise upon.