The yield on a 1yr treasury was higher yesterday than on a 2yr, which suggests that the market certainly thinks cuts next year are more likely than not. edit:

The yield on a 1yr treasury was higher yesterday than on a 2yr, which suggests that the market certainly thinks cuts next year are more likely than not. edit: link to data: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202208 https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/... edit2: for the visidata users: vd 'https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/all/202208?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202208&page&_format=csv https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/...'