3 ms·

We're going to be drowning in a glut of chips in 5 years.

by rr888 4y ago

scrlk 4y ago
..and the feast and famine cycle of the semiconductor industry continues. I suspect in 10 years time a lot of these factories will either be mothballed, closed, or the original plans scaled back.
- alephxyz 4y ago
  Not unless local governments keep subsidizing them to try and maintain domestic production.
TrueSlacker0 4y ago
Will we really be though? Chips are getting put into everything now and will only continue to expand as they get cheaper. Amazon and others putting Alexa or equivalent into everything. Necessary or not. Coffee is done, pings a phone. Dishwasher, etc. Not to mention vehicles. I wonder how long until my drill needlessly records how many holes it has drilled over it's lifetime. Or so that I can rent it and pay per hole drilled. Make more and they will be used. As much as I will personally miss dumb equipment that just worked.
- stevesearer 4y ago
  Even Febreze has a plug-in product that apparent uses a chip: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210203005168/en/Scent-Just-Got-Smarter-with-New-Febreze-Fade-Defy-PLUG%E2%84%A2 https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210203005168/en/Sce...
- kube-system 4y ago
  If you have a battery powered drill, it probably has at least one chip for the battery management and one for the speed control. Silicon ICs have been commonplace in appliances for decades now, “smart” or not. My appliances are all dumb as bricks and there are probably a couple dozen ICs in my kitchen.
  - rr888 4y ago
    Plug-in drills are much better than battery. :)
    - galdosdi 4y ago
      Not if you're using it on a job site. A battery operated drill is a lot lighterweight than having to lug around a gas or diesel generator to plug your electric corded drill into.
    - kube-system 4y ago
      If it were 2005, I'd agree with you.
    - rad_gruchalski 4y ago
      It depends on what you drill and where.
Ekaros 4y ago
What node size are these new fabs aiming for? And exactly for what are they geared for? CPUs? GPUs? Ram? Flash? Other chips?
ChuckNorris89 4y ago
Not really. Intel, Nvidia and AMD have learned to ramp supply up and down depending on demand to ensure they keep their margins very healthy. Even if their costs come down due to fab oversupply, don't expect them to pass their savings along to you and me. They have near monopolies in their sectors so have no incentive to lower prices too much.
dyingkneepad 4y ago
I don't know. With all these threats of war between China and Taiwan, I would imagine the exact opposite scenario is also a real possibility, where a conflict arises and then for some reason TSMC is unable to operate for at least a while.

We're going to be drowning in a glut of chips in 5 years.

by rr888 4y ago

We're going to be drowning in a glut of chips in 5 years.

..and the feast and famine cycle of the semiconductor industry continues. I suspect in 10 years time a lot of these factories will either be mothballed, closed, or the original plans scaled back.

alephxyz 4y ago
Not unless local governments keep subsidizing them to try and maintain domestic production.

TrueSlacker0 4y ago

Will we really be though? Chips are getting put into everything now and will only continue to expand as they get cheaper. Amazon and others putting Alexa or equivalent into everything. Necessary or not. Coffee is done, pings a phone. Dishwasher, etc. Not to mention vehicles. I wonder how long until my drill needlessly records how many holes it has drilled over it's lifetime. Or so that I can rent it and pay per hole drilled. Make more and they will be used. As much as I will personally miss dumb equipment that just worked.

stevesearer 4y ago
Even Febreze has a plug-in product that apparent uses a chip: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210203005168/en/Scent-Just-Got-Smarter-with-New-Febreze-Fade-Defy-PLUG%E2%84%A2 https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210203005168/en/Sce...
kube-system 4y ago
If you have a battery powered drill, it probably has at least one chip for the battery management and one for the speed control. Silicon ICs have been commonplace in appliances for decades now, “smart” or not. My appliances are all dumb as bricks and there are probably a couple dozen ICs in my kitchen.
- rr888 4y ago
  Plug-in drills are much better than battery. :)
  - galdosdi 4y ago
    Not if you're using it on a job site. A battery operated drill is a lot lighterweight than having to lug around a gas or diesel generator to plug your electric corded drill into.
  - kube-system 4y ago
    If it were 2005, I'd agree with you.
  - rad_gruchalski 4y ago
    It depends on what you drill and where.

Ekaros 4y ago

What node size are these new fabs aiming for? And exactly for what are they geared for? CPUs? GPUs? Ram? Flash? Other chips?

ChuckNorris89 4y ago

Not really. Intel, Nvidia and AMD have learned to ramp supply up and down depending on demand to ensure they keep their margins very healthy. Even if their costs come down due to fab oversupply, don't expect them to pass their savings along to you and me. They have near monopolies in their sectors so have no incentive to lower prices too much.

dyingkneepad 4y ago

I don't know. With all these threats of war between China and Taiwan, I would imagine the exact opposite scenario is also a real possibility, where a conflict arises and then for some reason TSMC is unable to operate for at least a while.