7 ms·

This is an absurd amount of new jobs. By absurd, I mean that this is leaps and bounds beyond what was predicted. It also means that the Fed isn't going to taper

by jdhn 4y ago

This is an absurd amount of new jobs. By absurd, I mean that this is leaps and bounds beyond what was predicted. It also means that the Fed isn't going to taper off rate hikes anytime soon. I know that there were some who were predicting that rate hikes were going to stop in 2023, but I'm doubting that if we keep getting numbers like this.

spywaregorilla 4y ago
Agreed, and good thing too. Regardless of what you want to say about recession or not, the US is really well positioned for the next decade relative to other countries.
- mywittyname 4y ago
  This is a sentiment that I'm happy to hear others share. If cards are played right, the USA could experience growth not seen since post-WWII. Inflation is high, but the USD is crushing every other currency. American businesses are fed up with shutdowns and shipping delays from Asia, and are willing to pay the price premium for domestic goods. And the federal government is doing (I think) a good job at pushing industries to capitalize on the global weakness.
  - AstralStorm 4y ago
    Check the structure of these jobs and then we can talk about how it actually will be a boom... Do you see industrial and manufacturing jobs as a major percentage here?
    - pxue 4y ago
      market forces and inflation will force corporations to look for domestic productions. short term pain for long term gain.
      - DuskStar 4y ago
        If the US dollar keeps getting stronger relative to other currencies, it will be better to manufacture things offshore and import them. That is what a strong currency does.
        AstralStorm 4y ago
        And it's precisely what is happening right now. Unless forced to manufacture here (like say defense and space industry), the low salaries elsewhere and already existing vertical and horizontal integration make for an insurmountable advantage forever.
        mywittyname 4y ago
        > Unless forced to manufacture here This is exactly what's happening. Companies realize that they don't have any influence or visibility into overseas production in places like China. That labor savings doesn't mean much when you're not allowed to actually make things, or when your goods get stuck in shipping for months on end.
- spaceman_2020 4y ago
  America’s problems seem entirely self-inflicted. Its still blessed land - wildly fertile and rich with resources. Any real security threat is an ocean away. It doesn’t even need to venture out much now to secure energy. People talk about moving to New Zealand in an apocalypse, but honestly you’d do very well in the US if the rest of the world was going to hell.
- Balgair 4y ago
  It's going to be a critical one too. Not that any really haven't been. International-Relations-wise the US is positioned to retain her monopolar status and then cement it for the century by 2030. The two greatest competitors to her rule were Russia and China. All other powers are strong allies of the US and have no reason to change that. As we've seen, McCain's quip turned out to be true, the bear is nothing but a mafia in a run-down gas-station. The only other real competitor is China, and without Taiwan's fabs, China can't compete this century. Whole new fields of industry must be created for the dragon to take a shot for a bipolar world. That the US managed to convince Taiwan to lessen it's grip on that security guarantee (with the Texas fabs okayed recently) shows how much Taiwan thinks the US can win any conflict with the mainland. They aren't scared in the least. Russia's ongoing disaster only strengthens that feeling, as any invasion, already an operation on never heard of scale, would involve the actual US military. That Russia somehow allows NATO to fight openly against her with the airgap of a Ukrainian finger on the trigger shows how outmatched the bear is. It's basically a weapons test for NATO at this point, much to Ukraine's detriment. China can only guess at how poorly the invasion would go and how bungled it would be. Combined with crushing blockades and sanctions, and she knows any move would kill her economy for decades. Their clock is not ticking, it ran out. The only question is if Beijing knows it. So yes, I think it is good to be in the US or allied with her.
HarryHirsch 4y ago
But - do the jobs pay the man that does it? Remember than someone who works an hour in a month counts as employed in the statistics.
- jdhn 4y ago
  Hourly earning wages rose 5.2% year over year, and increased .5% month over month, beating expectations of 4.9% and .3%, respectively.
  - SketchySeaBeast 4y ago
    Isn't this the fun with averages? The "great resignation" probably also caused an earnings bump for a lot of people, right? I know it did much more than 5.2% in my case, leaving room for new jobs with subpar wages for a few other people and it would still average out to that number.
  - weberer 4y ago
    Inflation is at 9.1% right now, so its a net negative. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
    - lotsofpulp 4y ago
      Is it net negative for everyone? Perhaps people at the bottom are positive and people above are net negative, i.e. reduction of income/wealth gap.
      - wahnfrieden 4y ago
        inflation hurts the poor and low income earners most, it widens the disparity gap
baron816 4y ago
Do keep in mind that it is just an initial estimate. These numbers get revised, occasionally dramatically.
dominotw 4y ago
tech market seems to be cooling down. Mostly due to fears and copycating FAANGs on their hiring freezes.
- lamontcg 4y ago
  That isn't the reality for 95% of the workers in the economy though.
dragonwriter 4y ago
> By absurd, I mean that this is leaps and bounds beyond what was predicted. More than double, yes. > It also means that the Fed isn't going to taper off rate hikes anytime soon. Well, maybe. But there's at least one more jobs report before the late September FOMC meeting, and it could be just as far off expectations in the other direction. Economic indicators have generally been wonky recently. And jobs aren't the only factor in monetary policy. Strong jobs but monthly inflation tapering faster than expected could still lead to the Fed easing up on the brakes.
lamontcg 4y ago
The Fed won't stop until they break the back of the labor market and unionization movements. The only lever they really have to pull to get wages until control is driving the economy into an iceberg. An actual NBER-approved recession is coming fairly soon (2023/2024) and something will blow up in the broader economy (CMBS?) and will be much worse than current economic conditions.
- dragonwriter 4y ago
  > The Fed won't stop until they break the back of the labor market and unionization movements That's not the Fed’s goal. Yes, tight monetary policy generally weakens labor leverage, but the target is inflation. If inflation comes down and unionization continues (which is not implausible, if non-labor price drivers like oil keep dropping), the Fed will almost certainly back of the brake lever notwithstanding the continued labor organizing drives.
  - lamontcg 4y ago
    I think it is more than a bit simplistic to assume workers are demanding higher wages just because oil spiked a bit. And I just don't have the time right now to try to convince anyone that the Fed's numbers and targets actually bake in class warfare without saying the quiet part out loud.
    - dragonwriter 4y ago
      > I think it is more than a bit simplistic to assume workers are demanding higher wages just because oil spiked a bit. It would be, but I didn't even approximately do that. In fact, what I said depends on pretty much the opposite, the two being largely independent of each other.

by jdhn 4y ago

spywaregorilla 4y ago

Agreed, and good thing too. Regardless of what you want to say about recession or not, the US is really well positioned for the next decade relative to other countries.

mywittyname 4y ago
This is a sentiment that I'm happy to hear others share. If cards are played right, the USA could experience growth not seen since post-WWII. Inflation is high, but the USD is crushing every other currency. American businesses are fed up with shutdowns and shipping delays from Asia, and are willing to pay the price premium for domestic goods. And the federal government is doing (I think) a good job at pushing industries to capitalize on the global weakness.
- AstralStorm 4y ago
  Check the structure of these jobs and then we can talk about how it actually will be a boom... Do you see industrial and manufacturing jobs as a major percentage here?
  - pxue 4y ago
    market forces and inflation will force corporations to look for domestic productions. short term pain for long term gain.
    - DuskStar 4y ago
      If the US dollar keeps getting stronger relative to other currencies, it will be better to manufacture things offshore and import them. That is what a strong currency does.
      - AstralStorm 4y ago
        And it's precisely what is happening right now. Unless forced to manufacture here (like say defense and space industry), the low salaries elsewhere and already existing vertical and horizontal integration make for an insurmountable advantage forever.
        mywittyname 4y ago
        > Unless forced to manufacture here This is exactly what's happening. Companies realize that they don't have any influence or visibility into overseas production in places like China. That labor savings doesn't mean much when you're not allowed to actually make things, or when your goods get stuck in shipping for months on end.
spaceman_2020 4y ago
America’s problems seem entirely self-inflicted. Its still blessed land - wildly fertile and rich with resources. Any real security threat is an ocean away. It doesn’t even need to venture out much now to secure energy. People talk about moving to New Zealand in an apocalypse, but honestly you’d do very well in the US if the rest of the world was going to hell.
Balgair 4y ago
It's going to be a critical one too. Not that any really haven't been. International-Relations-wise the US is positioned to retain her monopolar status and then cement it for the century by 2030. The two greatest competitors to her rule were Russia and China. All other powers are strong allies of the US and have no reason to change that. As we've seen, McCain's quip turned out to be true, the bear is nothing but a mafia in a run-down gas-station. The only other real competitor is China, and without Taiwan's fabs, China can't compete this century. Whole new fields of industry must be created for the dragon to take a shot for a bipolar world. That the US managed to convince Taiwan to lessen it's grip on that security guarantee (with the Texas fabs okayed recently) shows how much Taiwan thinks the US can win any conflict with the mainland. They aren't scared in the least. Russia's ongoing disaster only strengthens that feeling, as any invasion, already an operation on never heard of scale, would involve the actual US military. That Russia somehow allows NATO to fight openly against her with the airgap of a Ukrainian finger on the trigger shows how outmatched the bear is. It's basically a weapons test for NATO at this point, much to Ukraine's detriment. China can only guess at how poorly the invasion would go and how bungled it would be. Combined with crushing blockades and sanctions, and she knows any move would kill her economy for decades. Their clock is not ticking, it ran out. The only question is if Beijing knows it. So yes, I think it is good to be in the US or allied with her.

HarryHirsch 4y ago

But - do the jobs pay the man that does it? Remember than someone who works an hour in a month counts as employed in the statistics.

jdhn 4y ago
Hourly earning wages rose 5.2% year over year, and increased .5% month over month, beating expectations of 4.9% and .3%, respectively.
- SketchySeaBeast 4y ago
  Isn't this the fun with averages? The "great resignation" probably also caused an earnings bump for a lot of people, right? I know it did much more than 5.2% in my case, leaving room for new jobs with subpar wages for a few other people and it would still average out to that number.
- weberer 4y ago
  Inflation is at 9.1% right now, so its a net negative. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - lotsofpulp 4y ago
    Is it net negative for everyone? Perhaps people at the bottom are positive and people above are net negative, i.e. reduction of income/wealth gap.
    - wahnfrieden 4y ago
      inflation hurts the poor and low income earners most, it widens the disparity gap

baron816 4y ago

Do keep in mind that it is just an initial estimate. These numbers get revised, occasionally dramatically.

dominotw 4y ago

tech market seems to be cooling down. Mostly due to fears and copycating FAANGs on their hiring freezes.

lamontcg 4y ago
That isn't the reality for 95% of the workers in the economy though.

dragonwriter 4y ago

> By absurd, I mean that this is leaps and bounds beyond what was predicted. More than double, yes. > It also means that the Fed isn't going to taper off rate hikes anytime soon. Well, maybe. But there's at least one more jobs report before the late September FOMC meeting, and it could be just as far off expectations in the other direction. Economic indicators have generally been wonky recently. And jobs aren't the only factor in monetary policy. Strong jobs but monthly inflation tapering faster than expected could still lead to the Fed easing up on the brakes.

lamontcg 4y ago

The Fed won't stop until they break the back of the labor market and unionization movements. The only lever they really have to pull to get wages until control is driving the economy into an iceberg. An actual NBER-approved recession is coming fairly soon (2023/2024) and something will blow up in the broader economy (CMBS?) and will be much worse than current economic conditions.

dragonwriter 4y ago
> The Fed won't stop until they break the back of the labor market and unionization movements That's not the Fed’s goal. Yes, tight monetary policy generally weakens labor leverage, but the target is inflation. If inflation comes down and unionization continues (which is not implausible, if non-labor price drivers like oil keep dropping), the Fed will almost certainly back of the brake lever notwithstanding the continued labor organizing drives.
- lamontcg 4y ago
  I think it is more than a bit simplistic to assume workers are demanding higher wages just because oil spiked a bit. And I just don't have the time right now to try to convince anyone that the Fed's numbers and targets actually bake in class warfare without saying the quiet part out loud.
  - dragonwriter 4y ago
    > I think it is more than a bit simplistic to assume workers are demanding higher wages just because oil spiked a bit. It would be, but I didn't even approximately do that. In fact, what I said depends on pretty much the opposite, the two being largely independent of each other.