4 ms·

Here's some interesting data from Japan. It's the Tokyo weather record from 1876 to 2022. No change at all to speak of over the entire period. https://www.data

Here's some interesting data from Japan. It's the Tokyo weather record from 1876 to 2022. No change at all to speak of over the entire period. https://www.data.jma.go.jp/obd/stats/etrn/view/monthly_s3_en.php?block_no=47662 https://www.data.jma.go.jp/obd/stats/etrn/view/monthly_s3_en... Please avoid any temptation to assume this comment is intended to buttress a 'climate denial' belief. It isn't.

myrmidon 4y ago
I only looked at the raw data, but isnt the yearly average clearly increasing from 13-14 to 16ish? Am I misinterpreting? What exactly did you mean with "no change"?
- sgt101 4y ago
  I think you are right, there is a distinct change - although I don't know enough about the data to properly interpret.
_ph_ 4y ago
Without even plotting the data, it seems to be very obvious to me. Starting out at 13-14 degrees annually at the beginning of the recording, it is now pretty solidly 16-17 degrees. The last year under 16 was 1996. If that isn't a dramatic change, I don't know what is. So this data actually pretty much exactly matches the French data.
eCa 4y ago
Look at december, as an example. During the roughly 50 year period from 1875-1926, 25 times the average temperature was <= 5.0 degrees. The last time that happened was in 1956, which is some 65 years ago. I’d say that is more than ”no change at all”. Edit: I looked at february. Seven times in the same period (1875-1926) the average temperature was >= 5. The last time it wasn’t? 1988, 33 years ago.
- MichaelZuo 4y ago
  That is a significant change. It seems like Tokyo winters are much milder now than pre WW2.
n4r9 4y ago
> Please avoid any temptation to assume this comment is intended to buttress a 'climate denial' belief I'm curious to know what your comment is intended to do, given the bizarrely faulty interpretation you've supplied.
JPLeRouzic 4y ago
> No change at all to speak of over the entire period That's not what I read in those numbers. To me there is a clear increase trend of 3 or 4 degrees: Year Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Annual 1876 1.6 | 3.4 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 17.0 | 18.5 | 24.3 | 26.6 | 22.6 | 14.8 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 13.6 2021 5.4 | 8.5 | 12.8 | 15.1 | 19.6 | 22.7 | 25.9 | 27.4 | 22.3 | 18.2 | 13.7 | 7.9 | 16.6
gus_massa 4y ago
Cities have like +2°C than the countryside https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_heat_island https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_heat_island Tokyo grow a lot between 1876 and 2022, so I really expect to see a change in the average temperature there.
Avshalom 4y ago
https://imgur.com/a/WsX7Emw https://imgur.com/a/WsX7Emw plot made from octave with: T = [....]; X = 1:1915; P = polyfit(X,T,1); M = P(1); C = P(2); Y = P(1)*X + C; plot(X,T,X,Y) ylim([-10,40]) https://topaz.github.io/paste/#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 https://topaz.github.io/paste/#XQAAAQCHIwAAAAAAAAAqCAOiEuDA/...
deleted 4y ago
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myrmidon 4y ago

I only looked at the raw data, but isnt the yearly average clearly increasing from 13-14 to 16ish? Am I misinterpreting? What exactly did you mean with "no change"?

sgt101 4y ago
I think you are right, there is a distinct change - although I don't know enough about the data to properly interpret.

_ph_ 4y ago

Without even plotting the data, it seems to be very obvious to me. Starting out at 13-14 degrees annually at the beginning of the recording, it is now pretty solidly 16-17 degrees. The last year under 16 was 1996. If that isn't a dramatic change, I don't know what is. So this data actually pretty much exactly matches the French data.

eCa 4y ago

Look at december, as an example. During the roughly 50 year period from 1875-1926, 25 times the average temperature was <= 5.0 degrees. The last time that happened was in 1956, which is some 65 years ago. I’d say that is more than ”no change at all”. Edit: I looked at february. Seven times in the same period (1875-1926) the average temperature was >= 5. The last time it wasn’t? 1988, 33 years ago.

MichaelZuo 4y ago
That is a significant change. It seems like Tokyo winters are much milder now than pre WW2.

n4r9 4y ago

> Please avoid any temptation to assume this comment is intended to buttress a 'climate denial' belief I'm curious to know what your comment is intended to do, given the bizarrely faulty interpretation you've supplied.

JPLeRouzic 4y ago

> No change at all to speak of over the entire period That's not what I read in those numbers. To me there is a clear increase trend of 3 or 4 degrees: Year Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Annual 1876 1.6 | 3.4 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 17.0 | 18.5 | 24.3 | 26.6 | 22.6 | 14.8 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 13.6 2021 5.4 | 8.5 | 12.8 | 15.1 | 19.6 | 22.7 | 25.9 | 27.4 | 22.3 | 18.2 | 13.7 | 7.9 | 16.6

gus_massa 4y ago

Cities have like +2°C than the countryside https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_heat_island https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_heat_island Tokyo grow a lot between 1876 and 2022, so I really expect to see a change in the average temperature there.

Avshalom 4y ago

https://imgur.com/a/WsX7Emw https://imgur.com/a/WsX7Emw plot made from octave with: T = [....]; X = 1:1915; P = polyfit(X,T,1); M = P(1); C = P(2); Y = P(1)*X + C; plot(X,T,X,Y) ylim([-10,40]) https://topaz.github.io/paste/#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 https://topaz.github.io/paste/#XQAAAQCHIwAAAAAAAAAqCAOiEuDA/...

deleted 4y ago

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