9 ms·
I've served on a city Planning Commission, and I can say categorically that you never truly know who someone is until the city tries to re-zone the property aro
by RichardCNormos 4y ago
I've served on a city Planning Commission, and I can say categorically that you never truly know who someone is until the city tries to re-zone the property around their house.
Being fair to Andreessen and his family, they likely bought their house knowing that the property was zoned single-family residential, as was the entire neighborhood, and that it's relatively difficult to change land use policy. That is, until the Legislature of the State of California decided it knew better than every incorporated city, and wrote a housing density law that superseded local zoning regulations.
I've always been surprised that tech billionaires don't spend money influencing State Senate/Assembly races. Maybe that will change.
- exogeny 4y agoI don't think anyone really has much difficulty understanding his argument or why he's making it; the rank hypocrisy of his long-standing and consistent statements around building more housing is at issue.
- lalaland1125 4y agoYou seem to be completely ignoring how NIMBY policies like Marc's led to our current and increasingly bad housing crisis.
- shaburn 4y agoWhat housing crises? We have a declining population and double digit vacancies in commercial real estate.
- shaburn 4y ago...What a revealing week in Bay Area Real Estate... - SF has least competitive rental market in state, report finds Occupancy rates and rents are up, but the city has less demand than elsewhere https://therealdeal.com/sanfrancisco/ https://therealdeal.com/sanfrancisco/ - Netflix puts Los Gatos campus up for sublease as growth slows https://therealdeal.com/sanfrancisco/2022/08/12/netflix-puts-165k-sf-los-gatos-campus-up-for-sublease/ https://therealdeal.com/sanfrancisco/2022/08/12/netflix-puts... - ADP to close 63K sf office in Pleasanton https://therealdeal.com/sanfrancisco/2022/08/09/adp-to-close-63k-sf-office-in-pleasanton/ https://therealdeal.com/sanfrancisco/2022/08/09/adp-to-close... - Spec home developer slashes asking price on Woodside estate by 42% https://therealdeal.com/sanfrancisco/2022/08/08/spec-home-developer-slashes-ask-on-woodside-estate-by-42/ https://therealdeal.com/sanfrancisco/2022/08/08/spec-home-de... - SF home prices drop $370K from peak, per Compass report https://therealdeal.com/sanfrancisco/2022/08/11/sf-home-prices-drop-370k-from-peak-per-compass-report/ https://therealdeal.com/sanfrancisco/2022/08/11/sf-home-pric... - Sand Hill Road reckons with its future Landlords of the iconic Silicon Valley office strip rethink strategies in remote-work era https://therealdeal.com/sanfrancisco/2022/08/09/sand-hill-road-reckons-with-its-future/ https://therealdeal.com/sanfrancisco/2022/08/09/sand-hill-ro... - StubHub to close SF office as tech exodus continues Online ticket reseller to build up offices in LA and New York https://therealdeal.com/sanfrancisco/2022/08/08/stubhub-to-close-sf-office-as-tech-exodus-continues/ https://therealdeal.com/sanfrancisco/2022/08/08/stubhub-to-c... - San Jose leads U.S. cities in falling home prices From April to June prices fell an average of $75K, or 5.1 percent https://therealdeal.com/sanfrancisco/2022/08/02/san-jose-leads-u-s-cities-in-falling-home-prices/ https://therealdeal.com/sanfrancisco/2022/08/02/san-jose-lea...
- 1270018080 4y agoEmbarrassing comment. Do you not live in California? Or are unaware of the state of the housing market there? From homelessness, to the average cost of a house, to the declining population because middle class people can't afford to buy or event rent...
- davidw 4y agoIt's gone well beyond California at this point: https://www.npr.org/2022/07/14/1109345201/theres-a-massive-housing-shortage-across-the-u-s-heres-how-bad-it-is-where-you-l https://www.npr.org/2022/07/14/1109345201/theres-a-massive-h...
- shaburn 4y agoLife long. Real estate values are in freefall. Many areas in the Bay Area are down 19% in 30 days. RTO is failing. Tech layoffs are ramping up.
- pcwalton 4y agoA 19% decrease in housing prices, even assuming that that number were true (it's not even close to that for the SF property I own, for example), is not nearly enough to make SFBA affordable. Your argument was stronger when you were simply expressing your aesthetic preference for lower density instead of denying the existence of the housing crisis.
- shaburn 4y agoIf it happens in again next month, maybe it will. May arguments stem around letting communities make their own decisions and abiding by the laws, as silly and antiquated and biased as they maybe, make their own decisions. I am heavily pro-building, but I don't want a jail built next door. There are nuances. But we don't have a housing shortage in California, any longer.
- cuteboy19 4y agoHow about we go one step further and allow individuals to make their own decisions about the land that they own? Perhaps individual freedom is an alien concept for many Americans?
- EddySchauHai 4y agoThe median house price in my city is $3m, that’s pretty absurd based on prices 10/20/30 years ago. And that’s not even the issue, when a house does go on the market it’s sniped by the ultra rich - like Zucks housing complex he’s built from single house properties to get around planning rules.
- shaburn 4y agoThat's an anomaly that has probably worked out pretty well for you right?
- epistasis 4y agoDepends on "working out" means personal financial gain on a single asset, or "working out" means a good community that is welcoming to new people. Sounds like this poster is more community minded and less greedy. And this is not an anomaly, it's the norm. The $3M communities are just the leading edge, and every area with any economic opportunity will be there soon unless we do something to address this desperate shortage of houses.
- shaburn 4y agoThe mathematic improbability of 1% of US communities with "any economic opportunity" reaching an average home price of $3mm in the next few decades is <1% without a total collapse of the dollar, thus likely any economic opportunity it brings.
- kelnos 4y agoNot if they're renting... And that's kinda beside the point, isn't it?
- EddySchauHai 4y agoI’m definitely renting!
- shaburn 4y ago
- bobthepanda 4y agoCommercial is not easily reusable for residential, the requirements are totally different.
- shaburn 4y ago
- bobthepanda 4y agoIt's not even about the law, we just don't put kitchens or showers in commercial buildings, and retrofitting them in would be extremely impractical. It's not impractical to tear down a house and put down a perfectly building code compliant apartment building.
- shaburn 4y agoWould love to see this argument quantified.
- bradleybuda 4y agoFWIW, this is also an own-goal caused by dumb zoning policies. Regardless, the point that "we need to legalize the construction of residences to bring down prices" stands.
- 4y ago
- motoxpro 4y agoHere you go. Here is actual data showing that housing is expensive which in turn leads to not many people being able to afford them which then leads to a "housing crisis". https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-income-ratio/#:~:text=Historically%2C%20an%20average%20house%20in,times%20the%20yearly%20household%20income https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-inco....
- shaburn 4y agoYou have cherrypicked the time period making your point without showing the 2020 spike driven by Covid has been zeroed out most and oblivious to the point the knife is still falling fast. Random Spot check on a single family home in highly impacted San Mateo. Surprise, list price is $2.08mm($2.2MM Zestimate) down $600k from March 2022 Zestimate of $2.7mm for a 22% drop from peak in less than half a year. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4241-Bettina-Ave-San-Mateo-CA-94403/15544817_zpid/ https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4241-Bettina-Ave-San-Mate...
- motoxpro 4y agoCherrypicked 70 years of data? up until 2 months ago? So take that May data that I posted, reduce it by 22%, you're still at 1.5 TIMES the 50 year average, or ~7 times the median income. That house needs to go down A LOT more than ~20% to get back to the "cherrypicked" > 50 year average. If you have those two most recent months (June, July) that I left out of the 70 year picture please link to some data that includes them Even before covid we were over we were over the average. This is national average btw. Not "a random sample" in SF that also proves my point because most people cant afford a ~2 million dollar home. I feel like if you're index on 2 million dollar homes no wonder you don't think there is a housing crisis. You can afford anything you want
- shaburn 4y agoPayments have spiked 50%+ in about the missing time period thanks to rate raises. And that 1.5 times average about in line to well below the delta in money printing average in the same time period. The story here is NIMBYism, California Real Estate, Tech, and the "housing shortage". Your data is honed in on the Nation Average and emphasizes the 2020 spike in prices that reflects an exceptional supply constraint in conjunction with a massive(exceptional) migration driver and breakout money printing(none of which speak to a localized housing shortage which would interface conflicts with NIMBYism in a material way). NIMBYism is primarily focused on affluent communities, so low income communities and national averages are fairly irrelevant in arguments pertaining to such(most communities can't lawyer up for long property battles). Most arguments conflating NIMBYism to other issues are calls for Government housing support. Unfortunately most of the data I'm working on is derived from Zillow, which is specific to markets, lagging, and not open for export. Look at the Zillow charts of the average homes in most of the real NIMBY markets(San Mateo, San Francisco, Orange County, Marin, Etc) and you will see a fast dropping Zestimate that is well above the average transaction prices actually conducted in the last few weeks. All while supply is accumulating well outside averages. Debt bubbles pop fast. This one is the beneficiaries of government pumping debt with low interest rates into homes surrounding the growth companies that rode its wave. Tides out, so boats are hitting the shore.
- shaburn 4y ago"Now, a new report released by the city's(San Francisco) budget and legislative analyst estimates that there are more than 40,000 units sitting vacant." https://abc7news.com/san-francisco-vacancy-tax-apartment-vacancies-sf-housing-crisis/11536909/ https://abc7news.com/san-francisco-vacancy-tax-apartment-vac...
- epistasis 4y agoSounds like we need a loooooot more vacancies, like maybe 100,000-150,000 in San Francisco. The only vacancies that are a problem are all the vacant, unbuilt units above small, 1-2 story single family homes all throughout San Francisco. Those are the vacancies that are killing the city.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- astrange 4y agoA "vacant building" means nothing; there is no reason to believe it's in the right location, will still be vacant next week, or is even habitable. Under construction and condemned units are both considered vacant. You gotta build. https://darrellowens.substack.com/p/vacant-nuance-in-the-vacant-housing https://darrellowens.substack.com/p/vacant-nuance-in-the-vac...
- shaburn 4y ago
- lern_too_spel 4y agoFrom your article: > David says of those 40,000 units, about 32,000 of them fall into categories that would most likely be exempt from a vacancy tax. > For example, properties that have been recently bought or sold and the new tenants haven't moved into yet, or ones where landlords are currently doing renovations or upgrades. > "It will not move the needle on our affordability or displacement crisis in any meaningful way," he said. > David says what the city really needs to do is build more housing. > "In order to keep the cost of housing to just be increasing at the same rate as inflation, you need to be adding about two percent to our housing stock per year," he said. > David says that comes out to about 5,000 new units a year. > But for the past 30, we've only built an average of 1,800 annually, leaving us in a 100,000 unit deficit
- shaburn 4y ago
- kelnos 4y agoYou seem to be contradicting yourself here. If, as you claim, demand has dropped, home prices have dropped, and we no longer have a housing shortage, then there's no need for a crash, because everything is just fine. I feel like the flawed consensus is mostly in your own head.
- kelnos 4y agoIf the population is declining so fast and no one wants to live here, why do housing prices continue to rise?
- shaburn 4y agoDear Annonomous HackerNews Misinformation Committee, Myth Busted. Sincerely, SF Chronical and Myself. "S.F. population fell 6.3% to lowest level since 2010" https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/S-F-population-fell-6-3-most-in-nation-to-17199403.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/S-F-population-fell-6...
- shaburn 4y agoGuess where the epicenter of the inventory build up is folks. Unfortunately for some, real estate is bound by reality. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-09/homes-for-sale-surge-as-builders-are-stuck-with-too-much-inventory?srnd=premium https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-09/homes-for... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-09/home-listings-soar-in-cooling-us-housing-market?srnd=premium https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-09/home-list...
- tptacek 4y agoYou sort of just explained why the State of California decided it knew better than every incorporated city, in your first sentence.
- shaburn 4y agoThat also has not gone well. Check the adoption of SB9.
- astrange 4y agoIt's going fine. Housing isn't intended to be fixed by a single bill, there's new ones every year and SB9 will be easier to strengthen now that it's actually passed. Some significant legal victories too: https://www.yimbylaw.org/the-general-plan-rules https://www.yimbylaw.org/the-general-plan-rules
- shaburn 4y ago"going fine" vs "Despite uproar, few seek to use California’s new housing-density law. What’s stopping them?"..."In San Francisco, 14 property owners have applied to build SB9 projects" https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-housing-density-law-SB9-17295074.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-hous...
- tptacek 4y agoThe very opening of the story you just pasted explains why: because San Francisco charged someone trying to use the law a $98,000 fee.
- happyopossum 4y agoWhich tell’s me it’s not “going fine”…
- astrange 4y ago
- cheesy_luigi 4y ago[Bilal Mahmood](https://www.bilalforassembly.com/ https://www.bilalforassembly.com/) (ClearBrain founder, YC alum and former Amplitude Head of Product) recently ran for state assembly. Some tech people are getting involved in politics, but most do not. Sadly, most tech folks don't vote or have zero interest in local politics.
- kelnos 4y ago> Sadly, most tech folks don't vote or have zero interest in local politics. It's more that transient populations usually don't bother. If your plan is to move to an area for 4-6 years in order to bootstrap a career, earn some money, build a resume and reputation, and then move out to somewhere lower-cost, then you're not going to see the need to get involved in local politics or even vote.