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Betting sites like Intrade are lagging indicators with respect to the polls. Bettors adjust their bets whenever new polls are released, but it doesn't generally
by mdxch 18y ago
Betting sites like Intrade are lagging indicators with respect to the polls. Bettors adjust their bets whenever new polls are released, but it doesn't generally work the other way around (people responding to pollsters don't do so on the basis of what they saw on Intrade).
- tptacek 18y agoThat sounds like a valid point, but bear in mind that a lot of research has been done on the IEM's (more credible than Intrade), and they are more predictive than polls.
- steveplace 18y agoI disagree. I think prediction markets are better because people are risking money. Of course they adjust based on sentiment and other external factors, but I do think it's superior to traditional polling that has significant sampling and measurement problems.