2 ms·
Because markets are imperfect. "It is based on Intrade.net state-by-state prediction market odds..." When betting state-by-state, people think Obama is doing
by andreyf 18y ago
Because markets are imperfect.
"It is based on Intrade.net state-by-state prediction market odds..."
When betting state-by-state, people think Obama is doing better than when they bet nationally.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method
- paulgb 18y agoI bet there's some money to be made on prediction market arbitrage if you know what you're doing. Also: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/intrade-betting-is-suspcious.html http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/intrade-betting-is-su...