A lie is anti-correlated with the truth. Bullshit is uncorrelated with the truth. The problem with trusting a coin flip because it happened to be right this tim

A lie is anti-correlated with the truth. Bullshit is uncorrelated with the truth. The problem with trusting a coin flip because it happened to be right this time is that now you trust the coin a source of information, when really its a source of entropy. The lie will be found out just as soon as the truth comes out, whereas the bullshitter might get enough lucky flips in a row that people start taking their advice seriously.