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High deviance opinion to follow. I hope I'm very, very wrong about this. I've just ingested a large dose of Peter Zeihan's work, so I may be de-ranged. Russian

High deviance opinion to follow. I hope I'm very, very wrong about this. I've just ingested a large dose of Peter Zeihan's work, so I may be de-ranged. Russian gas infrastructure has a high chance of collapse within the next 12 months. China has a high chance of societal collapse within the next 60 months It is likely 500,000,000+ people will see food scarcity before then end of 2022. Go back and read the prediction threads here from December 2019 about the oncoming 2020 decade. There's NO hint of the pandemic.

emmelaich 4y ago
The possibility had been predicted by many over the last decades at least. By its nature however, mere predictions don't get a whole lot of news. This bet is from 2017: “A bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event within a six month period starting no later than Dec 31 02020.” Discussed at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25368379 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25368379 Moreover, the possibility was well canvassed by those intimately connected with the sars2 outbreak, e.g. Peter Daszak.
outsidetheparty 4y ago
I’m not familiar with Zeihan, but those are bold claims indeed! I’m not disputing — these are weird times indeed — but can you summarize the reasoning behind those? I’m particularly curious about what is the expected cause of Chinese societal collapse in such a short timeframe; that’s not an idea I’ve encountered.
- mikewarot 4y ago
  The reasons I've heard so far: They've got a Covid vaccine that doesn't work, so they're trying Covid Zero as a policy. This is effecting their production, ports, etc. They've got issues with their pork industry. They've culled more pigs than the rest of the world has total in the last few years. They're food insecure. They have demographic problems due to the "1 child" policies of the past.

emmelaich 4y ago

The possibility had been predicted by many over the last decades at least. By its nature however, mere predictions don't get a whole lot of news. This bet is from 2017: “A bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event within a six month period starting no later than Dec 31 02020.” Discussed at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25368379 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25368379 Moreover, the possibility was well canvassed by those intimately connected with the sars2 outbreak, e.g. Peter Daszak.

outsidetheparty 4y ago

I’m not familiar with Zeihan, but those are bold claims indeed! I’m not disputing — these are weird times indeed — but can you summarize the reasoning behind those? I’m particularly curious about what is the expected cause of Chinese societal collapse in such a short timeframe; that’s not an idea I’ve encountered.

mikewarot 4y ago
The reasons I've heard so far: They've got a Covid vaccine that doesn't work, so they're trying Covid Zero as a policy. This is effecting their production, ports, etc. They've got issues with their pork industry. They've culled more pigs than the rest of the world has total in the last few years. They're food insecure. They have demographic problems due to the "1 child" policies of the past.