> You next phone will be a Windows Phone. I'm not so sanguine. First Mover Advantage (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-mover_advantage http://en.wikipedia.or

> You next phone will be a Windows Phone. I'm not so sanguine. First Mover Advantage (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-mover_advantage http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-mover_advantage) is a very real effect across many industries. In fact, the some of the patterns in the wikipedia entry have already been seen in the smartphone market (pre-emption of scarce resources, free rider effects). And we don't have to look too far back in history to find an example of an OS with a superior UI (original Mac) getting trounced by an OS with a huge application library (DOS/Win3.1). I don't think we see Microsoft playing a significant role in the smartphone market. Unlike tablets, there aren't too many customers needing to run Win32 API apps on a phone. Until we see another inflection point in the platform market, I think Windows will remain niche on the phone and modestly successful on the tablet. The wildcard is the IP litigation, I suppose. If Apple were to be wildly successful at crippling Android, I imagine OEMs would flock to the WinPhone platform.