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I wonder to what extent Washington's fuss over Taiwan is simply TSMC lobbying at work. They're an important company that is gonna get their lunch eaten by the m

I wonder to what extent Washington's fuss over Taiwan is simply TSMC lobbying at work. They're an important company that is gonna get their lunch eaten by the mainland. But what can Washington even do about it? Beyond the "unsinkable aircraft carrier" angle, that is.

Throwawayaerlei 4y ago
"[TSMC is] an important company that is gonna get their lunch eaten by the mainland." How so? Not for the foreseeable future in bleeding and leading edge nodes, where the PRC is some unknown but very long distance away from making their own EUV machines. An invasion of Taiwan just means an end to TSMC production there, a point its chairman Mark Liu made a few days ago in a CNN interview. That would have really bad effects on the PRC's narrow economy with its export focus.
- tshadley 4y ago
  Very good points. Here's the link. https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/fzgps/date/2022-07-31/segment/01 https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/fzgps/date/2022-07-31/segme... LIU: Nobody can control TSMC by force. If you take a military force or invasion you will render TSMC's factory non-operable because this is such a sophisticated manufacturing facility. It depends on the real time [correlation] with the outside world, with Europe, with Japan, with the U.S., from materials to chemicals to spare parts to engineering software diagnosis. And it's everybody's effort to maybe this factory operable. So if you take it over by force you can no longer make it operable.
  - octoberfranklin 4y ago
    China doesn't need to take TSMC by force. All they need to do by force is install a puppet government in Taipei. No bombs will fall anywhere near TSMC's facilities. No tanks will go anywhere near their employee parking lots. Life will go on just like before. For a few years, at least. It'll be just like Hong Kong. No bloodshed there either.
- pphysch 4y ago
  > PRC's narrow economy Come on. There is not a less "narrow" major economy on the planet than China's. This is just silly. USA would collapse in weeks if China blocked all exports. China would run out of dollars, which coincidentally would become worthless at the same time.
  - Throwawayaerlei 4y ago
    While I don't accept the way you've reframed the decision criteria, I can point out one US nuclear attack sub busting a few ships loaded with fuel and food for the PRC "would collapse in weeks." Which is relevant since we're discussing my claim of how "narrow" the PRC's economy is, not anything about the US.
    - pphysch 4y ago
      > Which is relevant since we're discussing my claim of how "narrow" the PRC's economy is, not anything about the US. The US economy is deeply dependent on the Chinese economy. It is a total fantasy to pretend that the Chinese economy can suffer without US economy suffering massively as well.
      - Throwawayaerlei 4y ago
        Again, what's your point in trying to change the topic of the discussion? You certain Xi is going to further trash his own economy merely to further hurt the US economy? For that matter, I think your original proposition has been partly proven wrong, the traffic jams at West Coast ports have deprived the US of timely container deliveries from the PRC and Asia in general. Some high value low weight and volume stuff got through via air, but somehow we continued to operate a modern technological industrial civilization.
        pphysch 4y ago
        Supply chain shocks and an official Chinese ban on exports are very, very different scenarios.
trynumber9 4y ago
The US has been sending carrier groups to support Taiwan long before they were a leading edge semiconductor manufacturer. So it's geopolitics as normal. As for getting crushed by SMIC, this is only with possible massive government investment from the PRC. Now you see many other governments reacting with subsidies in kind. It will be a totally distorted market in 10 years time.
- pphysch 4y ago
  Hence "to what extent". TFA implies that TSMC leaders were VIPs at the Pelosi meeting. What does this have to do with Washington's long-standing policy of militarizing Taiwan?

Throwawayaerlei 4y ago

"[TSMC is] an important company that is gonna get their lunch eaten by the mainland." How so? Not for the foreseeable future in bleeding and leading edge nodes, where the PRC is some unknown but very long distance away from making their own EUV machines. An invasion of Taiwan just means an end to TSMC production there, a point its chairman Mark Liu made a few days ago in a CNN interview. That would have really bad effects on the PRC's narrow economy with its export focus.

tshadley 4y ago
Very good points. Here's the link. https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/fzgps/date/2022-07-31/segment/01 https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/fzgps/date/2022-07-31/segme... LIU: Nobody can control TSMC by force. If you take a military force or invasion you will render TSMC's factory non-operable because this is such a sophisticated manufacturing facility. It depends on the real time [correlation] with the outside world, with Europe, with Japan, with the U.S., from materials to chemicals to spare parts to engineering software diagnosis. And it's everybody's effort to maybe this factory operable. So if you take it over by force you can no longer make it operable.
- octoberfranklin 4y ago
  China doesn't need to take TSMC by force. All they need to do by force is install a puppet government in Taipei. No bombs will fall anywhere near TSMC's facilities. No tanks will go anywhere near their employee parking lots. Life will go on just like before. For a few years, at least. It'll be just like Hong Kong. No bloodshed there either.
pphysch 4y ago
> PRC's narrow economy Come on. There is not a less "narrow" major economy on the planet than China's. This is just silly. USA would collapse in weeks if China blocked all exports. China would run out of dollars, which coincidentally would become worthless at the same time.
- Throwawayaerlei 4y ago
  While I don't accept the way you've reframed the decision criteria, I can point out one US nuclear attack sub busting a few ships loaded with fuel and food for the PRC "would collapse in weeks." Which is relevant since we're discussing my claim of how "narrow" the PRC's economy is, not anything about the US.
  - pphysch 4y ago
    > Which is relevant since we're discussing my claim of how "narrow" the PRC's economy is, not anything about the US. The US economy is deeply dependent on the Chinese economy. It is a total fantasy to pretend that the Chinese economy can suffer without US economy suffering massively as well.
    - Throwawayaerlei 4y ago
      Again, what's your point in trying to change the topic of the discussion? You certain Xi is going to further trash his own economy merely to further hurt the US economy? For that matter, I think your original proposition has been partly proven wrong, the traffic jams at West Coast ports have deprived the US of timely container deliveries from the PRC and Asia in general. Some high value low weight and volume stuff got through via air, but somehow we continued to operate a modern technological industrial civilization.
      - pphysch 4y ago
        Supply chain shocks and an official Chinese ban on exports are very, very different scenarios.

trynumber9 4y ago

The US has been sending carrier groups to support Taiwan long before they were a leading edge semiconductor manufacturer. So it's geopolitics as normal. As for getting crushed by SMIC, this is only with possible massive government investment from the PRC. Now you see many other governments reacting with subsidies in kind. It will be a totally distorted market in 10 years time.

pphysch 4y ago
Hence "to what extent". TFA implies that TSMC leaders were VIPs at the Pelosi meeting. What does this have to do with Washington's long-standing policy of militarizing Taiwan?