The Fed was basically announcing that they're going to cause a recession that everyone will agree on in order to get inflation down. They've largely shut up ta

The Fed was basically announcing that they're going to cause a recession that everyone will agree on in order to get inflation down. They've largely shut up talking in the press which has allowed the markets to rebound a bit (which will allow the rich to unwind some positions). But the problem with inflation that we're seeing right now is that it goes beyond just an increase in oil prices, the leveling off of oil prices will not be enough to get it under control, and the Fed's stated goal of 2% inflation targets will require rising unemployment. And the Fed basically told everyone that this is what needed to happen when they were talking about focusing on core CPI instead of just oil, and talking about holding interest rates above the natural rate for some time, along with their statements that the labor market remains historically strong. I can't quite predict when that will happen, but we're certainly not there yet. We should also see the entire rest of the real economy get stress tested, and you can easily bet that since the last time it was tested was 2008 we'll see detonations in something else. My bet is commercial real estate goes off first due to the combined effects of the pandemic, remote work, and the recession. There's still a lot of "work" left to be done to get into a recession. The yield curve needs to invert for a sustained amount of time, unemployment should spike and I expect it hits around 8%[*], the Fed will realize they've gone too far and start slashing rates again. We'll be talking about bailing out rich people again. Whatever you think about how bad this is, the actual recession is going to be 10 times worse, and most of the arguments about how horrible the current economic conditions are I think can be summed up as "tell me you were too young to really remember how bad 2008 was without telling me". And this time could very well be worse than 2008. We've had even longer to build up problems in the economy (and we did basically fuck-all about regulating the banks last time) along with the fact that if the Republicans take the House they'll likely be happy to ruin the economy to hang it on Biden (probably up until the Billionaire class starts to actually hurt and yells at enough of them to knock it off). Right now it looks like we're heading for a second half recovery in sentiment though and I don't really expect any of this to unfold until next year after higher interest rates have had time to take effect. Although towards the end of this year Wall St may start to realize that core CPI isn't coming down even though oil levels off and that interest rates will still go up, and they'll start to more accurately predict how much pain we're in for. Right now it seems like the prevailing sentiment is that the Fed has largely done their job, rates won't go up much longer and that inflation is tamed because oil leveled off, so we just had the weakest recession possible which tamed all our inflation and its back to boom times--I am extraordinarily skeptical of that take. [*] at a minimum