In this title I feel like the word "likely" is a bit inappropriate and "probably" would make more sense. "Likely" implies a bit more.. probabilistic reasoning,

In this title I feel like the word "likely" is a bit inappropriate and "probably" would make more sense. "Likely" implies a bit more.. probabilistic reasoning, whereas gauging a recession is more a question of how you define it. But here, I guess, it's just being used as a slightly more professional way to say "probably", and should be taken to mean exactly the same thing in this case.