5 ms·

GDP is also a lagging indicator. Recessions happen fast. There's never been any "I think" in all the recessions I've experienced. Everyone knew.

hammock 4y ago
If you are young and thinking only of 2001, 2008 and 2020, those were crashes and significantly bigger than previous recessions. See another commenter’s chart here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1
- dragonwriter 4y ago
  2001 was a short and mild recession (and was widely debated up until shortly after 9/11, and then often blamed on 9/11 even though it started six months earlier.) It felt worse and later because lots of people suffered from the poor distributional features of the following expansion more than the recession itself.
  - hammock 4y ago
    What is worse, 2001 or the current recession?
    - rrrrrrrrrrrryan 4y ago
      We probably won't know until this one is over.
    - dragonwriter 4y ago
      Kind of begs the question of the current state being a recession. If it turns out to be, probably this will be worse, but I don't think it will turn out to be. (That is, I think not a recession is the most likely current state, but I think recession that turns out to be more severe than 2001 is still more likely than recession that turns out to be less severe than 2001.) But the whole economic context is fairly unusual, and I wouldn't make any predictions with high confidence.
AlwaysRock 4y ago
Well surely at the start it was I think before developing into I know. Right? Plus plenty of folks are already at I know right now while some are at I think or I know were not.
s1artibartfast 4y ago
I think that certainty depends on where you are in the the economy. If you are a low earner and your cost of food goes up 10% you know it. If you are a high earner, you can play semantics.
- dragonwriter 4y ago
  Most of the things that cause pain for low-earners are not recessions, some of them (e.g., inflation) are even anti-correlated with recession.
  - s1artibartfast 4y ago
    I see the exact opposite when I read the charts. Inflation is almost always high before and during a recession. Inflation usually * decreases* over the course of the recession. A recession almost never occurs during times of low inflation. https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2008/8/28/saupload_gdppricecpi.jpg https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2008/8/28/saupload_g...
dragonwriter 4y ago
> There's never been any "I think" in all the recessions I've experienced. Everyone knew. The Great Recession even being a recession was debated from before it was later declared to have started until it was officially declared a year after the point it was declared to have begun (which was actually before the revisions to GDP figures which would qualify the starting point as a recession under the 2-down-quarter rule that some people are now pretending is Holy Writ.) So, either your memory is flawed or your experience is quite limited.

hammock 4y ago

If you are young and thinking only of 2001, 2008 and 2020, those were crashes and significantly bigger than previous recessions. See another commenter’s chart here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1

dragonwriter 4y ago
2001 was a short and mild recession (and was widely debated up until shortly after 9/11, and then often blamed on 9/11 even though it started six months earlier.) It felt worse and later because lots of people suffered from the poor distributional features of the following expansion more than the recession itself.
- hammock 4y ago
  What is worse, 2001 or the current recession?
  - rrrrrrrrrrrryan 4y ago
    We probably won't know until this one is over.
  - dragonwriter 4y ago
    Kind of begs the question of the current state being a recession. If it turns out to be, probably this will be worse, but I don't think it will turn out to be. (That is, I think not a recession is the most likely current state, but I think recession that turns out to be more severe than 2001 is still more likely than recession that turns out to be less severe than 2001.) But the whole economic context is fairly unusual, and I wouldn't make any predictions with high confidence.

AlwaysRock 4y ago

Well surely at the start it was I think before developing into I know. Right? Plus plenty of folks are already at I know right now while some are at I think or I know were not.

s1artibartfast 4y ago

I think that certainty depends on where you are in the the economy. If you are a low earner and your cost of food goes up 10% you know it. If you are a high earner, you can play semantics.

dragonwriter 4y ago
Most of the things that cause pain for low-earners are not recessions, some of them (e.g., inflation) are even anti-correlated with recession.
- s1artibartfast 4y ago
  I see the exact opposite when I read the charts. Inflation is almost always high before and during a recession. Inflation usually * decreases* over the course of the recession. A recession almost never occurs during times of low inflation. https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2008/8/28/saupload_gdppricecpi.jpg https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2008/8/28/saupload_g...

dragonwriter 4y ago

> There's never been any "I think" in all the recessions I've experienced. Everyone knew. The Great Recession even being a recession was debated from before it was later declared to have started until it was officially declared a year after the point it was declared to have begun (which was actually before the revisions to GDP figures which would qualify the starting point as a recession under the 2-down-quarter rule that some people are now pretending is Holy Writ.) So, either your memory is flawed or your experience is quite limited.