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+1, “are we manifesting a recession”: https://kyla.substack.com/p/the-vibecession-the-self-fulfilling https://kyla.substack.com/p/the-vibecession-the-self-fulf

by yunohn 4y ago

+1, “are we manifesting a recession”: https://kyla.substack.com/p/the-vibecession-the-self-fulfilling https://kyla.substack.com/p/the-vibecession-the-self-fulfill...

blagie 4y ago
It's a good set of thoughts. My own opinion is that COVID19 ground the economy to a halt. We had two choices for dealing with the lost productivity: a) About 2x inflation of currency (long-term -- e.g. 15% for five years). At the end, currency is worth less. b) Structural damage (e.g. businesses going bankrupt, people losing mortgage, people fired, etc.) And a bit of a spectrum in between. We chose much closer to (a) than to (b). This feels like the right choice. We didn't do it very cleanly, unfortunately, which has repercussions now. Personally, I feel like we should all just accept that money is worth less today, that it's not a runaway problem, and just deal with it. I'm concerned we'll either just delay the structural damage, or see run-away inflation.
- yunohn 4y ago
  > Personally, I feel like we should all just accept that money is worth less today Maybe for your situation that’s fine, but it affects me and almost everyone else quite a bit. It’s hard earned money.
  - blagie 4y ago
    It effects everyone quite a bit. The problem is we lost many months of productivity. At the end of the day, there's less stuff to go around. You get less stuff. I get less stuff. Money is a point-keeping abstraction. Us simply being able to buy that much less stuff (by the lost production) is the best-case outcome. The worst-case outcome is that we continue to produce less stuff because of structural damage. For example, if you lose your job, can't get another one, and can't make your mortgage, that results in much more direct damage than a loss of savings. That, in turn, means you buy less stuff, and businesses who depend on you to consume go under, and more people lose their jobs. And so on.
    - yunohn 4y ago
      Yes, so society as a whole is right to be concerned about it, what caused it, what its effects are, and what could be changed. Why do you think everyone should “just move on” just because you’re comfy, despite it clearly being a Bad Thing?

by yunohn 4y ago

+1, “are we manifesting a recession”: https://kyla.substack.com/p/the-vibecession-the-self-fulfilling https://kyla.substack.com/p/the-vibecession-the-self-fulfill...

blagie 4y ago

It's a good set of thoughts. My own opinion is that COVID19 ground the economy to a halt. We had two choices for dealing with the lost productivity: a) About 2x inflation of currency (long-term -- e.g. 15% for five years). At the end, currency is worth less. b) Structural damage (e.g. businesses going bankrupt, people losing mortgage, people fired, etc.) And a bit of a spectrum in between. We chose much closer to (a) than to (b). This feels like the right choice. We didn't do it very cleanly, unfortunately, which has repercussions now. Personally, I feel like we should all just accept that money is worth less today, that it's not a runaway problem, and just deal with it. I'm concerned we'll either just delay the structural damage, or see run-away inflation.

yunohn 4y ago
> Personally, I feel like we should all just accept that money is worth less today Maybe for your situation that’s fine, but it affects me and almost everyone else quite a bit. It’s hard earned money.
- blagie 4y ago
  It effects everyone quite a bit. The problem is we lost many months of productivity. At the end of the day, there's less stuff to go around. You get less stuff. I get less stuff. Money is a point-keeping abstraction. Us simply being able to buy that much less stuff (by the lost production) is the best-case outcome. The worst-case outcome is that we continue to produce less stuff because of structural damage. For example, if you lose your job, can't get another one, and can't make your mortgage, that results in much more direct damage than a loss of savings. That, in turn, means you buy less stuff, and businesses who depend on you to consume go under, and more people lose their jobs. And so on.
  - yunohn 4y ago
    Yes, so society as a whole is right to be concerned about it, what caused it, what its effects are, and what could be changed. Why do you think everyone should “just move on” just because you’re comfy, despite it clearly being a Bad Thing?