4 ms·
> The thing is, those with fewer than 10 years experience have never seen the ferocity of the other side of the business cycle. When it turns, that mofo turns.
by ekidd 4y ago
> The thing is, those with fewer than 10 years experience have never seen the ferocity of the other side of the business cycle. When it turns, that mofo turns.
I was working as a programmer during both the dotcom crash and the 2007-2008 real estate crash. I would describe these downturns as "bumpy".
But neither was catastrophic for most of the programmers I knew. Some of us moved, others found new jobs. Some of the least-skilled, including the "webmasters" who didn't know JavaScript or CSS, did wind up leaving the industry in 2001.
If you had a 1-year emergency fund, you would probably have been fine in either crash. The people who were the hardest hit were actually the people living in major tech cities, because they had the biggest concentrations of layoffs. The longest I was on the job market was about 3 months in fall 2001, but I had to move out of Boston. I got a slightly underpaid but really awesome job.
Right now, there are tens of thousands of organizations that would be revolutionized by some simple custom software. These organizations can't compete with FAANG salaries. But they'll be happy to absorb quite a few programmers. Some of the jobs will be valuable and interesting work.
So like I said, a hard crash can be bumpy. But for most professional programmers, it probably won't be catastrophic.
- spookie 4y agoI don't know about the big boys. But at least in Europe, in 2008, the crash wasn't "bumpy". It was survival of the fittest, and most up and coming companies straight up died. It's a matter of perspective, for sure. But I would be careful myself. FAANGs won't vanish, and it won't be catastrophic for the privileged few. But, for the rest of the world, which follows the status quo? This spells doom in various levels.
- ekidd 4y ago> It was survival of the fittest, and most up and coming companies straight up died. Oh, during the dotcom crash, Internet companies failed by the thousands in the US. But many of them were absolute garbage companies, far worse than the average modern startup. Frankly, scam companies were coming out of the woodwork. It was even worse than the later mobile/social/local/GroupOn era. But just because many companies folded, it didn't necessarily mean that competent programmers were out of work indefinitely. There was a period of about 6 months when getting hired was nearly impossible, but after that, things started to turn slowly upward. Honestly, if you're a programmer, I really recommend an emergency fund. Especially if you're being paid ridiculously well, keep your living expenses lower, and put some money aside.
- SauciestGNU 4y agoOh man I worked briefly with someone who was one of those webmaster/VBS jockeys. It was 10-12 years after the dotcom bust and the guy was doing Tier 2 desktop support at a non-technical megacorp. The people who got hit in that bust really got hit, but you have to wonder how much of that was due to not continuously learning and evolving skills.