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Having a counter-cyclical business is helpful but not strictly necessary and actually not sufficient. What is actually most important are a long-term outlook,
by gen220 4y ago
Having a counter-cyclical business is helpful but not strictly necessary and actually not sufficient.
What is actually most important are a long-term outlook, backing from shareholders to pursue anti-fragility at the cost of short-term growth, and well-managed and well-protected cash reserves.
Few well-known, public or VC-funded companies operate this way, because collective greed is a far more powerful force than the desire to build an anti-fragile, long-lasting company.
And in a world where it's fairly easy to close a company's book and move on to start the next thing, and where the economy hasn't experienced real stagnation in over a generation, this arrangement of incentives makes sense.
Berkshire Hathaway has historically worked this way, as an example. One of Buffet's basic playbooks was to combine the books of cyclical and counter-cyclical businesses, and harvest temporarily high prices of the former to plow into the latter, and vice versa.