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I don't think this is an accurate assessment of the situation. China's an export based economy that's going through a slowdown and still struggling with pandem

by codyb 4y ago

I don't think this is an accurate assessment of the situation. China's an export based economy that's going through a slowdown and still struggling with pandemic lockdowns. War would shut down the Taiwanese straight for shipping and it's one of their busiest export lanes in the world. It's not helping that their housing market is in pretty dire straights. So the CCP's not in super great water popularity wise (although sometimes wars can bring people together, I'm not sure that's as true with acts of aggression as it is with acts of defense). China and the US are both heavily dependent on Taiwan for semiconductor manufacturing, especially for state of the art chips. War would shut China off from that tap. Those labs are incredibly advanced and not easy to rebuild. And the US dependence on those chips give the US a strong reason to defend Taiwan. Both countries are ramping up their own chip production in order to make this less of an issue but it's certainly the case at the moment. An invasion across the Taiwanese straight _would not be a cakewalk_. China's military is certainly much stronger than it used to be, but at some point you need to move troops across that straight in greater numbers than jumping out of the back of bomber planes can provide. A mass landing is likely to result in huge casualties and may not be successful. The US has been arming Taiwan for decades now and it's certain they're planning for that cross channel invasion. Anti-China sentiment in the US is fairly strong at the moment and the current US President has said the US would defend Taiwan. China will invade when the US is divided on the issue and thus more likely not to step up to the plate. Similarly, where the US goes it'll have help from its partners. China's not in a great position at the moment, at the end of the day, despite a lot of rolling around on the ground trying to scratch for fleas the United States is still a pretty big dog in this world. And going toe to toe with it in something that's not a proxy war probably isn't something any regime has much appetite for. That's my assessment at the moment.

ghostwriter 4y ago
Even without a hot active phase, potential escalation and the prospect of export issues with the US at this point would just fuel China's trade with Russia, as sanctions would become an unavoidable event, hence CCP wouldn't have a reason to think twice before maximising trade with all other sanctioned states. And the trade wouldn't happen in US dollars/western financial infrastructure either.
pseudo0 4y ago
I think China would much rather take Taiwan in 10 or 20 years than today, and it would take some serious goading to spark an actual conflict. Could they pull it off today? I'd give them decent odds, but as you describe, even the best case would be painful and expensive. Opposed amphibious landings are extremely hard to pull off. In terms of public opinion, I think you underestimate the extent to which Chinese people believe that Taiwan is a rightful part of China. Their domestic audience would not view it as invading another nation, but rather the rightful culmination of a long effort to reunify territory lost during the century of humiliation (eg. Hong Kong, Macau). Biden's statement that the US would defend Taiwan was an unscripted gaffe in response to a question that the White House walked back within hours. In reality, the US has no legal obligation or treaty compelling it to defend Taiwan. Again, there are pretty clear parallels to Ukraine, where the US provides materiel and support, but isn't willing to actually guarantee military intervention. My takeaway is that this visit will ratchet up tensions and has a very small probability of escalating into a serious crisis, for no appreciable foreign policy benefit. It just looks like a cynical attempt to shore up foreign policy weakness before the midterms, after the mess in Afghanistan and Ukraine.

by codyb 4y ago

ghostwriter 4y ago

Even without a hot active phase, potential escalation and the prospect of export issues with the US at this point would just fuel China's trade with Russia, as sanctions would become an unavoidable event, hence CCP wouldn't have a reason to think twice before maximising trade with all other sanctioned states. And the trade wouldn't happen in US dollars/western financial infrastructure either.

pseudo0 4y ago

I think China would much rather take Taiwan in 10 or 20 years than today, and it would take some serious goading to spark an actual conflict. Could they pull it off today? I'd give them decent odds, but as you describe, even the best case would be painful and expensive. Opposed amphibious landings are extremely hard to pull off. In terms of public opinion, I think you underestimate the extent to which Chinese people believe that Taiwan is a rightful part of China. Their domestic audience would not view it as invading another nation, but rather the rightful culmination of a long effort to reunify territory lost during the century of humiliation (eg. Hong Kong, Macau). Biden's statement that the US would defend Taiwan was an unscripted gaffe in response to a question that the White House walked back within hours. In reality, the US has no legal obligation or treaty compelling it to defend Taiwan. Again, there are pretty clear parallels to Ukraine, where the US provides materiel and support, but isn't willing to actually guarantee military intervention. My takeaway is that this visit will ratchet up tensions and has a very small probability of escalating into a serious crisis, for no appreciable foreign policy benefit. It just looks like a cynical attempt to shore up foreign policy weakness before the midterms, after the mess in Afghanistan and Ukraine.