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Unless China's clearly stated policy that recognizes Taiwan as a part of China changes, it isn't really a black swan event. It's more like an increasingly acti
by spaceman_2020 4y ago
Unless China's clearly stated policy that recognizes Taiwan as a part of China changes, it isn't really a black swan event.
It's more like an increasingly active volcano. It might not blow up tomorrow, but if you deliberately built a house on its edges, it would be hard to sympathize with you when it finally does go kaput.
- TuringNYC 4y agoHow does one appease quarter-to-quarter returns chasing investors with that?
- panick21_ 4y agoThat assumes the only possible way the China-Taiwan issue can be resolved is some kind of event that would disrupt the production, ie. war or at least blockade of Taiwan.
- fancifalmanima 4y agoNot the person you're replying to, but if I ran a chip business (or a country with a lot of military/economic tech dependent on chips-- IE most countries), it would certainly be something you'd want to de-risk if you could. Sure it's not the only possible outcome. But it's a realistic outcome, and one that has a ton of downside if it happens.
- spaceman_2020 4y agoIf I'm running a country or a multibillion dollar business, I'd certainly not want to leave my future wellbeing to the good sense of two powers with a gigantic historical axe to grind.