18 ms·
> Base rate fallacy, extrapolated into infinity, sure. You only need to extrapolate Tesla's existing revenue and growth out for five years to make them the big
by ajross 4y ago
> Base rate fallacy, extrapolated into infinity, sure.
You only need to extrapolate Tesla's existing revenue and growth out for five years to make them the biggest automaker in history, though.
Clearly, yes, it's going to stop somewhere. But a first principles argument like yours is running out of room. It made sense a few years back when they were still popular-but-tiny. At this point, the median expectation pretty much has to be that Tesla will be the dominant vehicle manufacturer globally for the next decade or three.
- tsimionescu 4y agoAre you being serious? Based on what? They are still a tiny tiny player in the auto industry, if we ignore the market cap.
- njarboe 4y agoThey delivered ~925,000 cars in 2021 with just two factories. That is about 2% of global sales. Maybe a small player (wouldn't say tiny, tiny at this point) in 2021 but they are ramping up production at two factories completed this year and building a large expansion to the Shanghai plant. They will likely produce ~1.4 million cars in 2022 and north of 2 million in 2023. Where they peak out is not clear of course but at least 6 million cars per year from existing sites can be expected.