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Spot on. Any large country that's NOT desperately building up fab facilities within the country right now is playing with fire. This stuff is the new oil. Insan

by spaceman_2020 4y ago

Spot on. Any large country that's NOT desperately building up fab facilities within the country right now is playing with fire. This stuff is the new oil. Insane how little of our modern life works without chips.

noogle 4y ago
Is this about CPUs or all electronics? Computer chips are in general a reliable hardware, and top-of-the-line CPUs are in general way more powerful than needed, so there is no need for cutting-edge manufacturing and also an embargo won't halt existing activities. Simpler/embedded processors seem to be a generic product that can be manufactured by many countries, hindering embargo efforts. Are chips more critical for a country than e.g. food? because many countries are not nutritionally self-sufficient.
- spaceman_2020 4y ago
  Both - CPUs, electronics, military gear, etc. Strategic risks such as war, invasions, sanctions, etc. have to be dealt with on a decadal basis. You have to ask: what's the current reality, and what's the trend? The trend is pretty clear: our world is going to depend more on computers, not less. You have to prepare for a world where drones have replaced your fighter jets, where every citizen has a smartphone, and where your financial system will collapse without working computers and servers.
  - thirdsun 4y ago
    > The trend is pretty clear: our world is going to depend more on computers, not less. You have to prepare for a world where drones have replaced your fighter jets, where every citizen has a smartphone, and where your financial system will collapse without working computers and servers. That sounds a lot like the present.
  - noogle 4y ago
    CPU factories seem to cost hundreds of billions of dollars - beyond the capabilities of most nation-states. I wonder if this will cause a trend towards reducing requirements (e.g. pushing important infrastructure to rely on simpler chips) as keeping up with the technology will drain a country's resources.
SilverBirch 4y ago
I think this is completely wrong. Oil is compustible, at the end of the day you don't need a crazy supply chain to make use of it, just to make it. You couldd have 99% of a working supply chian for advanced eletronics, you're still fucked. It's far more fragile than oil.

noogle 4y ago

Is this about CPUs or all electronics? Computer chips are in general a reliable hardware, and top-of-the-line CPUs are in general way more powerful than needed, so there is no need for cutting-edge manufacturing and also an embargo won't halt existing activities. Simpler/embedded processors seem to be a generic product that can be manufactured by many countries, hindering embargo efforts. Are chips more critical for a country than e.g. food? because many countries are not nutritionally self-sufficient.

spaceman_2020 4y ago
Both - CPUs, electronics, military gear, etc. Strategic risks such as war, invasions, sanctions, etc. have to be dealt with on a decadal basis. You have to ask: what's the current reality, and what's the trend? The trend is pretty clear: our world is going to depend more on computers, not less. You have to prepare for a world where drones have replaced your fighter jets, where every citizen has a smartphone, and where your financial system will collapse without working computers and servers.
- thirdsun 4y ago
  > The trend is pretty clear: our world is going to depend more on computers, not less. You have to prepare for a world where drones have replaced your fighter jets, where every citizen has a smartphone, and where your financial system will collapse without working computers and servers. That sounds a lot like the present.
- noogle 4y ago
  CPU factories seem to cost hundreds of billions of dollars - beyond the capabilities of most nation-states. I wonder if this will cause a trend towards reducing requirements (e.g. pushing important infrastructure to rely on simpler chips) as keeping up with the technology will drain a country's resources.

SilverBirch 4y ago

I think this is completely wrong. Oil is compustible, at the end of the day you don't need a crazy supply chain to make use of it, just to make it. You couldd have 99% of a working supply chian for advanced eletronics, you're still fucked. It's far more fragile than oil.